Selections for Monday 10 June 2019

Update at 2.55 – Our three multi makers all won so hopefully that’s a good sign.  The quaddie looks gettable after the first leg and possibly some value in the last leg.  You could go shorter in the first leg and potentially anchor Queen Big League but here’s a possibly conservative approach:

Race 9
1. Cawbourne Moss
2. Flying Huey
3. Little Scamp
4. Bigtime Molly
5. Bigtime Lizzy
6. Bigtime Marley
7. Bigtime Bee
8. Coco Bango

R10

1. Bigtime Jasmine
6. Queen Big League

R11
1. Big Time Billie
2. Magic Flynn
6. Goldstar Sawyer

R12

2. Valyrian Steel
5. Here’s Hemi
6. Bigtime Forest

144 selections – $14.40 for 10%

Update at 12.40:  There’s a $4k bonus added to the late quaddie so I’ll post a recommended bet later this afternoon.

The first of 12 races today as it 12.57 so plenty of time to do your form analysis.

I think there’s a couple of races where you can narrow down the best changes to a couple of runners and hopefully make some money from those races.

Bet of the Day – M3 R10 Queen Big League (6)

I noted last week that the losing bet of the day had won the following week a couple of weeks in a row.  I think last week’s winning bet of the day, Queen Big League looks the likely winner in R10 and is paying reasonable money too.

The logic hasn’t changed a lot from last week.  She looks to one of two dogs to challenge for the early speed, the other being the second favourite Dynamite Danger.  And the sectionals tell us that if she’s in the first two at the end of the back straight, she should win given she has the two strongest closing sectionals.

I think it looks like the quinella of the day as well or instead you could play an AB/AB/FLD trifecta – Queen Big League and Dynamite Danger to run 1-2 with any runner for second.  50% will cost you just $6 assuming no late scratchings.

Not today.  The bookies will be having cream on their scones tomorrow – QBL came into $1.70.  Neither of the favourites made the start we expected and from their it was all over.

Other multi makers:

Race 2 – Triple What (1) – if he jumps, he wins – he jumped, he won

Race 5 – Bigtime Pete (3) – distance record holder and at his peak – … he just won 

Race 7 – Bigtime Cooper (3) – the other two look like standouts.  Bigtime Cooper isn’t the strongest over the closing sectionals but he has the pace and draw to get a winning break in an otherwise competitive race.  As we said, he’s not the strongest closer but the race was over 457m and not 458m 

Value Bet of the Day – M3 R3 Plan Stan (6)

As I explained last week, with the bet of the day usually paying around the $2-$2.50 mark, I’ve add a value bet to try and find some better odds.  With the bet of the day, the expectation is that it will win or go very close.  We can’t say the same for the value bet of the day but hopefully overtime we can find some winners and get some nice each way money.  Last week’s value runner snuck into third and paid nice place money.

I think there’s a bit of each way value around Plan Stan in Race 3.  The bookies have two dogs as clear favourites – Bigtime Leads (3) and Buddy Loaded (8).  Both are realistic chances.

A couple of months back, I would have made Bigtime Leads bet of the day at today’s price – his biggest asset is his early speed but he seems to have lost it recently.  In April he was racing C4/5 dogs so he’s dropped massively back in class.  That said, his last few runs haven’t been inspiring.

Likewise, Buddy Loaded has been up to the lofty heights of C5 and like Bigtime Leads he’s found himself on the slippery slope back to C1/2.  He’s a committed slow beginner and doesn’t have great form from the outside box either.

The opening sectionals say there’s only three dogs in this – the two favourites and Plan Stan.  Plan Stan actually has two of the best three opening sectionals in the last 90 days and both of those were in the green rug.  He also has the third best closing sectional.

I think he’s worth a dollar each way at $8.  I’d rate him more like a $4 shot so there’s real value there.  The $2 place money looks good too and could be a multi-maker as well.

It would surprise if none of the three won this race but at $8 I think Plan Stan is great value.

Good run for an $8 shot – easy $60 trifecta and the $2 place money on Plan Stan covered the each way bet.

Lay of the Day – Bigtime Forest M3 R12 (6)

I think there’s some value in the last race today.

Bigtime Forest is the favourite at $2.80 which made it close to the lay of the day.  He’s recently dropped back in class and has beaten a lot better fields than that.  At the same time, in his recent racing he’s been slow away and his best race in his last 6 races is on par with three of the other runners.

My first selection is Here’s Hemi – he hasn’t drawn particularly well but there doesn’t look to be a lot of speed here.  The speed map suggests he can lead and the sectionals say the same thing.  He’s drawn inside Forest which is a bonus.  The sectionals also tell us if he can lead he’s strong enough to win this.

I think there’s a bit of value around my second selection, Valyrian Steel (2).  Last week was his first crack at Palmerston North but he ran into trouble more than once yet was still finishing stronger than any other runner.  He’s not the fastest away but he does have a good record from box two while he’s found a race where he has even slower dogs drawn either side.

Not the best day … I don’t think anyone was expecting Forest to jump quite as well and that changed everything.  The two other dogs did what we expected but Forest was just too good on the day.

Rugs Challenge

The rugs challenge hasn’t been very profitable recently so I’ve decided to give it a miss for a while.  Still worth while playing if you have the time to analyse the races.

Quaddie

If there’s any money carried forward from the early quaddie, I’ll post an update before the first leg of the second quaddie.