I’ll post my recommended bets by 12.30 ish. The first race of 12 at Palmerston North is at 1.04.
There’s also 15 races at Ascot Park and the first few are C0. As a rule, I’ve learned not to punt on C0 races while Ascot Park and I have never really got on. The fact that they only race there a couple of times a month means we don’t have the same level of data we do at other courses.
Bet of the Day – M3 R8 Queen Big League (4)
Queen Big League looks to tick all the boxes today with the possible exception of the draw. That said, she should have the box speed – at least in this field – to get out early. She maps to be second out with the possible pacemaker on her outside so box 4 shouldn’t be an excuse.
She’s a downgrader, has the best rating for the track and distance and has won 4 from 8 over the 410m. She has the best opening sectional and best closing sectional over the last 90 days.
There’s a couple of big time threats as always. Bigtime Marley (3) is up in class but at his best can be in this at great money. Bigtime Banjo (8) is an obvious threat but is generally slow away and has won just once from 10 starts track and distance. Dynamite Danger looks the likely early leader but has yet to win track and distance. Limpy Jackson is another dog likely to be doing best at the end of the race.
However, Queen Big League rates on top – I rate her around $2.20 to the bookies are still offering good money. Update – she opened at $2.80 which was great money and already into $2.20 so the money has come.
The multi of the day looks like QBL into Bigtime Pete in Race 9 – small fish but $10 will get you around $33.
Also worth watching Triple What (9) in race 2. Our bet of the day has missed the last couple but likewise the last couple have won the following week. Triple What was the bet of the day last week but just missed the start. Gets a great chance for box 1. Another potential multi maker.
That’s how you want your bet of the day to win. Not lightning off the boxes but the sectionals gave us confidence she had enough speed to put herself in the race. Marley did well coming up in class while Limpy Jackson ran according to the script but was never a genuine win chance.
No dramas whatsoever with the recommended multi. One of the easiest multis you could hope for. In the end, the $33 for every $10 looks like overs but it’s easy to say that after the event. Triple What also provided low risk multi boosts.
Value Bet of the Day – M3 R12 Goldstar Sawyer (5)
With the bet of the day, I try to find a dog I think will win – consequently, with maximum of 8 runners it does mean we don’t often get big dividends although a small win is always better than a dog the loses paying rent money. So, there is a not of caution – the value bet shouldn’t have the same chance of success but if it does get up we should expect a better payout.
Goldstar Sawyer rates on top and has a great record over the track distance – at least compared to the rest of the field! 12 starts and 2 wins – no other dog has won more than once. In fact only one dog has won over the track and distance.
i think there’s significant overs on Goldstar Sawyer because Bigtime Forrest is such a short favourite. I can understand why Forrest is favourite but I think he’s way too short at $1.55. He’s had three cracks at the distance for nothing. His best rating over the last 6 starts is the same as Goldstar Sawyer yet this is a massive price differential.
Currently paying $7FF and I’ll put him into all bet types at that price.
Funny old race and we were never a chance of winning but a good run for third and if you went wide in the trifecta or first fours, you will be very happy.
Lay of the Day M3 R7 Eye Far (1)
Eye Far has come up as favourite in race 7 but while a winning change, I don’t see any value in the $2.60FF on offer. He has the early box speed to lead but can be a bit hit or miss at the start and a slow start from box 1 would be all over, red rover.
More concerning, after four attempts at the distance, he actually has the lowest best rating of the entire field. I could accept that anomaly for one or two starts but after 4 starts you would want a bit more confidence when backing a dog that short in the market.
Of more interest, if we think that one dog is too short, there should be value elsewhere. I think Bigtime Lizzie (5) is overs at $5.50 – the sectionals suggest she could lead this and be hard to run down. Cawbourne Moss (7) has consistent box speed that puts him in with a chance. Smash Charger looks definite overs based on his solid ratings – and has a good record in the pink rug too. Little Scamp almost caused a boilover last start and if the favourite bombs the start she could get a charmed run along the rails from box 2.
I’ll be looking to find a few in a trifecta or first four and hope the favourite misses which should give us decent overs.
Looks like it’s omelettes for dinner – scraping the egg of my face. He jumped better than he could have while Bigtime Lizzie had to contend with Little Scamp going awol. Still, the favourite delivered and our lay of the day missed. Let’s hope we can get our other bets up to compensate!
The rugs challenge hasn’t been very profitable recently so I’ve decided to give it a miss for a while. Still worth while playing if you have the time to analyse the races.