Selections Monday 27 May 2019

Update at 3.10 – massive quaddie carry over to last quaddie!

There’s a $3k carry over to the last quaddie (M9) which makes it definitely worthwhile.  It’s a tough quaddie anyway so if we can strike even a small % which should get a decent return.

I think the first leg looks pretty wide open – it’s a strange race because you either accept Otis will win or if not, you need to go wide.  With it being the first leg, we’d rather be live so I’ve gone wide in leg 1 and then narrower in all the others.

R2 – 1, 2, 3, 4 1st, 5, 6, 7, 8 (field)
R3 – 3 1st, 4
R4 – 1, 4, 5, 7 1st
R5 – 1, 2, 4, 7 1st

256 selections so $25.60 for 10%.

A pretty low stress way to get a $900 quaddie – our 10% returned a nice round $90 and if you’d been a little braver in the first leg you might have returned more for less outlay.  Still a nice way to end the day.  Box 2 shared the spoils in the rugs challenge too.  Back again next Monday for Queen’s birthday races.

 

There’s some great racing ahead of us today at Palmerston North with some very even and competitive fields.

There’s bound to be a lot of interest in how Bigtime Shadow backs up her track record performance last week (M3 Race 5).  He’s up in distance but has again drawn box 1.

I’ll keep an eye on the bonus quaddie money – it could well be the way to go today and I think there looks to be some potential value in the quaddie on the second meeting.

Bet of the Day M3 R2 Triple What (6)

To be fair, I’d normally like to find something paying more than $1.75 but as I’ve noted elsewhere, the flipside of some great even racing is that standouts look to be hard to find today.

Triple What has had two starts in NZ – the first a sighter where he was slow away but powered home and then last week he dominated from box 7.  So the outside box draw shouldn’t be a concern.

More so, the race does look devoid of early pace so he’ll have every chance to repeat last week’s effort.  He’s already come in a bit from an opening price of $1.90 but it’s a case of struggling to find a dog to beat him.

Bigtime Benji is the second favourite and comes up second on both opening and closing sectionals.  Bigtime Mike is another running solid races while Toki Girl actually has the best rating for the course and distance but is still trying to work into form after a break.

So long as he can get a clear getaway – and his opening secti

onal from last week is the best in this field – he should be too strong from them.  Happy to take the $1.75 although the $1.90 was very generous!

Lay of the Day M3 R7 Lochinvar Flash (3)

I think Lochinvar Flash is a very good dog and is on his way to open class.  At the same time, he’s just cleared C2 and today he’s racing dogs who have been racing in C4 and C5.  So a win wouldn’t surprise but the $1.55 is just too short for me.

The Ratings show that this is not his best track and distance – at least not yet.  So that is the first query.

The second query is that he hasn’t been blistering out of the boxes – keep in mind he’s now up in class yet he hasn’t consistently been first to the end of the back straight.  As he climbs the classes that will become more and more of an issue.  He tends to be doing is best at the end of the straight but that’s certainly been good enough thus far.

The third query is the dogs inside of them.  Both tend to run wider, especially Dino the Fox.  If either dog drawn inside jumps on terms, it creates a nightmare scenario as Flash tends to head towards the rail which of course is normally most laudable.  The concern today is that he may find he runs into trouble.

I could of course be completely wrong and he could dominate like he’s been doing in his earlier races.  But I simply couldn’t take the $1.55 as any sort of value for the reasons outlined above.

Based on the Ratings and sectionals, Awesome Quality looks to be the second best option and he’s paying $4.20 after opening at $4.80.  The bookies also have him as their second pick.  Goldstar Major is up from Addington where the 295 has generally proven a little too short so the longer distance and indeed longer straight should be bonuses.  He’s been competitive in C3 sprints so is not out of this.  If there is trouble at the start, then both favourites could be taken out so Barbarossa Boy could be the blow out.

I’d be happy to play exotics on this race and look for some value around the short priced favourite.

Rugs Challenge

The rugs challenges look like offering some value today while providing interest across the entire meeting.

M3

I think there’s some value around box 1 in the first challenge.  Box 1 has opened at $5.75 with the favourite box 3 at $2.90.  The Predictor has box 1 on top just ahead of box 4 ($13).  Box 1 looks to have some genuine chances to pick up points in the earlier races which always helps and there’s always an inherent advantage to having the inside draw.

So the current price for box 1 does look like value.  It will also add a bit of bite into the lay of the day – most people will have box 3 gifted the three points in the challenge so if the favourite is beaten, it could definitely upset the apple cart.

M9

The bookies and the ratings agree that box 2 is the best rug in the second challenge.  The Predictor has the stripes well ahead so I wouldn’t sniff at the $2.50 on offer although with just 5 races the odds can change dramatically.

Late Quaddie

I’ll update with a selected quaddie if there’s a carry forward from the early quaddie.  I’ll likely have a suggested quaddie for the second meeting as it looks nice and open.

 

 

Good punting!

David