Selections Monday 20 May 2019

Update at 1.40 – $1900 carry forward from early quaddie.  Recommended bet below.

It looks like one of those days where the bookies will have no problems digesting their sausage rolls.  A lot of open races so perhaps a case of looking for a little value but keeping the powder dry for better bets in the future.

I’ll update during the day – it’s definitely worth keeping an eye on the quaddies.  If there’s a carry forward from the early quaddie, the TAB will double it so that could mean a nice pot to play into.

Bet of the Day M9 R1 It’s Complicated (1)

Most weeks, we’ve been able to find one or even two dogs that look extremely well placed.  As I said in the intro, there’s a lot of open races with no standout bets so tread carefully.

However, I think It’s Complicated is a reasonable each way bet and there’s a couple of factors in her favour.  First, she’s escaping the open classes and so has the downgrade factor.  Second, she hasn’t been able to buy an inside draw – in her last 10 starts, she’s had one draw inside 4 and that was from box 3.  She’s two from two out of box 1, albeit in lower classes.

She maps to get away ok – the dog on her outside isn’t the quickest while Ziggy in box 3 might show some early speed but typically runs a width or two from the rails.  This should allow It’s Complicated to use the rail and as Ziggy is likely to die on her run, it may make it tougher for the swoopers to get around.

The two other favoured runners both have flags – Bigtime Brody has drawn out in box 6 so will likely have to navigate around Ziggy.  Bigtime Minnie isn’t the quickest away – while the inside draw will help It’s Complicated has a quicker opening sectional and if Ziggy does get a clear getaway, it will create a bit of a log jam ahead.

I rate It’s Complicated at around $3.50 – no certainty but certainly in the mix.  Currently paying $4.50FF so some nice each way value.

Almost – a good run for second beaten by the runner with all the money while Ziggy popped up in third which wasn’t entirely unexpected.

Lay of the Day M3 R5 Funky Facts (8)

As I noted in the intro, there looks to be a few races where we would be better off saving our money.  I think Funky Facts will win more races but I don’t think he’s boxed to suit in this race.

He’s run 15 times from boxes 5-8 and has yet to win.  That’s also related to the fact that he a slow beginner so he will need to find a way around most if not all of the runners.

He can win but he needs all favours and at $2.80 and a clear favourite, you would have every right to have greater confidence.

That tends to create some value for the runners on the early speed who can make their own luck.  Bigtime Forrest (2) almost lead all the way last week before being beaten by Bigtime Bruno.  He looks value at $7.00.  Bigtime Chris is another who is underrated and tends to win at decent odds in the lower classes, go up and struggle a bit and then return down the classes and do it again.  He won last week in a C2 but his ratings say he isn’t without a chance today and is paying juicy odds at $12.

There’s a number of other dogs who in other weeks would go around a lot shorter in a race like this – Bigtime Caleb and Bigtime Fred are a couple of dogs who have performed in the past while Bigtime Alfie has to be a show from box 1.  And then Bigtime Acacia won well on Friday night.

So it looks an open race and I don’t see any value in the short odds offered on Funky Facts.

Pretty much as scripted – to be fair, I thought Funky Facts had his chance at the top of the straight but he simply didn’t kick on.  A nice run at great odds from Bigtime Chris and if you went a little wide, the $480 trifecta wasn’t impossible and paid significant overs.  The early quaddie wasn’t too hard to find – the “outsider” in leg one showed up in the predictor as not without a chance and the middle legs were won by two favourties.  The $1000 was definitely overs.

Another I’d be happy to watch run around is Bigtime Thor (M9 R3).  He’s clearly the best dog in the race but in his two goes over the 410m he’s had problems down the back straight.  I’m not convinced he will enjoy the inside alley either.  On his merits, he is in a different class to this lot but his two best ratings have come from wider draws (6,8).

 

Rugs Challenge

M3

The first challenge looks extremely even with the top 5 rugs being separated by just 3 points.  I’ll update around race 4 – box 8 looks like it has the best later chances so if it was to pick up points earlier that would definitely help.

After race 5, box 4 is paying $1.01 so no value to be found here!

M9

Boxes 4 and 8 come up on top but still waiting for the bookies to offer their prices to see if there’s any value.

Late Quaddie

I’ll update with a selected quaddie if there’s a carry forward from the early quaddie.

A $1900 carry forward (or more precisely, $950 doubled by the TAB).  The second and fourth legs look gettable but you may need to go a little wider in the other two legs:

R7 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8
R8 1, 4, 8
R9 2, 3, 4, 7, 8
R10 2, 4, 6

270 combinations – so $27 for 10% or $13.50 for 5%.

 

Good punting!

David