Just the 12 races today and in half of those races the favourite is paying under $2.50 and there’s a couple more where you’ll get just over that mark.
So as always we need to be selective and find the races where we think we can find the best value.
And for those that have followed this column the last couple of weeks, I have made Bigtime Levi the bet of the day! I was ever grateful he clearly has a long nose with victory gained last week in the last hop or two. I meant to say I hadn’t made Levin BOTD … hindsight and all that!
Bet of the Day – M3 Bigtime Lilah (2)
Bigtime Lilah opening at $2.90 and before I’d even finished my morning coffee she was in to $2.50. She won a heat of the Futurity from box 1 and had no luck from box 5 in the final on Friday night.
She has the early speed to use box 2 – she seems to be one of the dogs who once they get on the lure is very keen. She clearly has the best rating for the track and distance and was subject to a significant plunge a couple back here at Palmerston North that came stuck. She features in both the opening and closing sectionals so she rates strongly.
The main challenge would appear to be from Funky Facts but you would need to take on trust and future ability than past performance. He hasn’t won from outside box 4 and his best rating over his last 6 starts is below that of Lilah.
They do look the obvious main chances although one for exotics could be Bigtime Fred – he maps to get away well especially given there’s not a lot of early speed in the race. He’s well proven over the course and distance so looks generously priced at $9.
I think the sectionals should help us have confidence too – Bigtime Lilah has the three best closing sectionals in the last 90 days. Funky Facts has only raced once so he’s excused but with a decent start (again supported by the sectionals), I think Bigtime Lilah should be too strong for them down the home straight.
I rate her at $2.30 so the $2.50 is still value.
You can hear the cheers from the Petone bookies – the money kept coming from Lilah but she never really got into the race. Perhaps she was drawn too close in for her liking but either way we didn’t really get a run from our money. Pity about those multis … :-)
Lay of the Day M3 R2 Magic Flynn (6)
The bookies have Magic Flynn as a $2.30 favourite in the second. Is he a winning chance? Yes, a win wouldn’t surprise. But I just don’t have as short as $2.30 at least based on what he’s done in his three NZ starts.
To be fair, his one NZ win was at Palmerston North over today’s distance – ignore the time as Noah’s Ark was used to get the starters around the course it was that wet. While he’s placed in his other starts, they don’t give you a lot of confidence. His best rating – albeit from 3 races – is just 18 and he consequently rates second last on the predictor. While he shows up in the speed map, he has yet to lead out and a couple of the earlier races were easier than today’s field.
So while I’m not entirely convinced he will lose, I struggle to find a reason to back him at that price so will happily watch him run around. The sectionals suggest that you have to put Flying Huey (4) and Bigtime Puma (3) into the mix. Both have performed over the course and distance although Huey may have been flying but he’s yet to win with 5 placings from 7 starts. Huey is at great value at $10 while Bigtime Puma is currently paying $5FF.
It doesn’t always work out to that degree but the favourite just wasn’t in the race – although we couldn’t see any vision. The replay will be interesting. The two dogs we noted to challenge the favourite ran 1-2 for a nice $97 trifecta.
We agree with the bookies that rugs 1 and 2 look the best bets at the start of the day so no great value there. We even agree on the next best bet (6).
However, as we’ve noted before, the odds for this bet can change dramatically with a few upsets so I’ll update during the meeting with any thoughts.
I’ll update with a selected quaddie if there’s a carry forward from the early quaddie.