Selections Monday 6 May 2019

Back to the normal pattern today with 15 races spread across 2 meetings (M3 and M9).

A reminder that we’re still building up a decent bank of performances with the (relatively) new sprint distance of 410m.  It’s worth noting simply because the extra 105m over Hatrick makes it difficult to compare sprinting form, without allowing for other track differences.

It’s unlikely that I’ll be able to provide any updates today so keep an eye on any quaddie carry forwards.

Bet of the Day – M9 R5 Bigtime Levi (1)

I don’t like repeating my bet of the day from the last week for the good reason that you want to ensure you don’t let the result from the previous race influence your thinking about the next race.

That said there’s a number of factors that suggest Bigtime Levi is a good bet.

Yes, daylight struggled into second last week but this is a different race. The track conditions meant that the times weren’t all that impressive but Levi’s early speed was impressive.

To be fair, his box speed is not his strength. His real strength is his closing sectional, he has four of the top 10 closing sectionals.

What should help Levi is the box 1 draw. Levi has a great record from box 1 – with 6 wins from 16 starts and a further 4 places.

The icing on the cake is Fare Dodger (or Fair Dogdems as he races). He will head right pretty much straight out of the boxes. If he gets a decent start, he could cross the field but there’s every chance he’ll run a perfect NFL block for Levi.

While he’s not at he absolute best, it’s not the strongest C5 field either. Two of the biggest dangers – Ask King Jeff and You Can Be map to get well back.  The interesting runner is Hey Fernando.  I’m not sure if he can hear the drums but it’s his first time at Palmerston North and he’s been competitive in C5 middle distance races and in a couple of his albeit limited starts has shown up in the early rush.  He maps to get forward in this race too.

I rate Levi at $2.60 today – I had him shorter last week – but he still is value at $2.80FF.

Hopefully, many of you were on Supera, Neil’s bet of the day last weekend.  That’s how you want the bet of the day to win.  Two strides before the post, it was a case of almost but perhaps it was the strength of those closing sectionals that made the difference.  In the end, they don’t pay out on how much they win by so we will take the win.  Back again next Monday.

Lay of the Day M9 R1 Bigtime Alfie (5)

Race 1 of the second meeting looks a pretty competitive race and while I think Bigtime Alfie has to be in considerations, I was surprised he’s come up favourite.

His track and distance ratings are so so – his best for the 457m is 51 and all runners bar Funky Facts having his first start track and distance have run a better time.  He’s drawn the squeeze box and maps to get back.  He has a reasonable closing sectional but the sectionals tell us what the speed map does – that he will give most of these a head start.

So I couldn’t have him at favourite and to be fair to the bookies he’s not particularly short either at $3.20.

Funky Facts is of course the unknown and the bookies have priced him warily.  The Predictor rates Turanza’s Terror on top and the $4.80 on offer is nice with a record of 5 wins from 7 attempts over the course and distance.  Bigtime Annie won well at Hatrick on Friday night and has early speed.  Bigtime Chris shouldn’t be ignored either – he has good early sectionals and has been racing better fields than this.  Certainly one to put into the black book as he tends to turn up and pay offers when he does win.

As we said, there was overs in this race and I couldn’t understand why Turanza’s Terror was allowed to go around at nearly $5.  So great value there and the trifecta was easy to find as well.  Again, finding dogs that are poorly priced is a great way to find value.

I’m also happy to watch Lochinar Flash run around in M3 Race 1.  In his one run over 410m, he was extremely weak as shown by the difference in his ratings – he’s clocked three ratings above 60 in three starts at Hatrick which is outstanding.  One start at Palmy for a rating of 8.  It could have been a one off, he could be stronger, but I would want to see him win strongly at PN before I’d back him.  The main thing in his favour is it’s hard to find something to beat him but still $1.45 is no value.

Rugs Challenge

M3 – PN

Predictor says the winner will be one of boxes 1,4 or 5 and the bookies strongly agree.  Not much value around the 1 or 5 but 4 is currently paying $9.

M9 – PN

Predictor says 1 or 7 and the bookies largely agree.  With just five races, this challenge can be extremely volatile but the 7 looks worth a gold coin.

Late Quaddie

Sorry, but I may not be able to provide any updates for bonus quaddies today.  Remember that in the case of a carry forward, the TAB will double the bonus this month.

Good luck!

Updated at 11.30

Suggested late quaddie – there’s potential anchors in all four legs so feel free to adjust according to your view of each leg.

R7 1, 3
R8 1, 4, 5, 6, 7
R9 3, 5, 6
R10 1, 4, 5, 7

$12 for 10% and hope for some value in the second leg in particular.

Tough quaddie – looked good after the first two legs but no joy after.

David