Selections Monday 29 April 2019

Update at 5PM – $700 carry forward to the late quaddie at Addington.

A couple of different plays – these low class meetings can be really tough to find winners given how inconsistent the runners can be.

Option 1 – go wide and hope for a few roughies:

R9 1, 4, 5, 7, 8
R10 1, 4, 6, 7
R11 1, 2, 3, 6, 7
R12 1, 2, 7

$15 for 5%

If you want to be a little more aggressive, you could look to go narrow in the middle legs.

R9 1, 4, 5, 7, 8
R10 4, 7
R11 1, 2
R12 1, 2, 7

$15 for 25%

No roughies but no dramas either.  The low risk quaddie return $16.80 for a tiny profit along with only a tiny amount of drama.  We even managed the get the trifecta in the last to make it stress free.  The more aggressive approach returned $84.10 so a nice addition to the bank.  Hope you got a slice too.

After the Boys Got Paid robbed the bookies blind over the weekend, today’s races look ready made to help the bookies get some back.

Where there are strongly fancied runners, there’s little value so clearly the bookies are not in a generous mood.

We’ll keep an eye out for any bonus quaddies and I’ll provide any recommended bets if there’s a bonus.  One strategy that can work on a long day like today is to wait for a bonus pool – particularly First 4 – and use the ratings to have a go.  At least that way, if you do get a collect, you are guaranteed overs.

Bet of the Day – M9 R4 Bigtime Levi (8)

The sectionals tell us that Levi only needs a decent start and with his class and his closing strength, he wins.  You wouldn’t normally want to see a $1.80 come from box 6 but he has a strong record from box 6 and critically Thomas William is drawn inside and he maps to be extremely slow out.  Levi downgrades today and he has been racing much tougher fields than this.

Sub Eighteen and Bigtime Leads map to be on the early pace which at least puts them into the mix, especially from the inside boxes.  However, both are significantly weaker than Levi down the straight.  The only dog who looks like having anything close to the closing sectional of Levi is Thomas William and as we noted he maps to get back even further than Levi.

I think the $1.80 on offer is fair, especially on a day where the bookies aren’t offering up much.

Sailor Allen – late scratched so a guaranteed multi builder –  (Addington Race 3) looks the likely winner but there’s not a lot of value in $1.65.  Could be worthwhile adding to any multis however.

The second half of the race went to plan – what surprised was how Levi jumped first.  Daylight second.  The $1.80 ended up being overs!

Lay of the Day – M9 R5 Ask King Jeff (6)

It’s a fair call that I’m happy to back Bigtime Levi who maps to get away slow yet I’m happy to label Ask King Jeff as the lay of the day so hear me out :-)

Levi rated clearly on top and had 70% of the best closing sectionals.  Levi is also downgrading.  By comparison, AKJ maps to be last out, is in an open class race, and rates midtable.  His sectionals are OK but certainly not dominant.

The other factor that worries me is the dodgem car otherwise known as Fare Dodger.  He certainly won’t be heading left and even if he stayed straight, it potentially creates trouble.

At the other end, we know Trojan Hoarse has early speed and I would expect All About Space also to get away well.  Her record from box 3 looks pretty bleak but she has strong stats from boxes 2 and 4 and I think she’s right in the mix and at some nice value.  You can’t rule out Fusion Cronulla while You Can Be is another who has been in solid form.

I don’t think AKJ is value at $2.70 and I would be going much wider in my quaddie – AKJ is definitely no anchor.

 Again, pretty much to script – Ask King Jeff was never in the hunt at least to win and you definitely needed to go wider in the quaddie.  

Speed Map Special – Addington R4 – Fickle Princess (7)

The speed map is a remarkably helpful tool for greyhound betting, especially now with the aid of sectionals.

Fickle Mistress maps to be a clear leader – she has three of the best four opening sectionals.  Last start, she really didn’t enjoy the inside box so being out in box 7 should be perfect – she has won from box 6.  So don’t let the wide draw put you off.

She maps to be a clear leader which should play into her paws with any problems further back – she rates on top in the Predictor.  The $4 is nice value especially if as so often happens there’s problems behind the early leader. I think there’s some nice each way value around Fickle Princess and needs including in any bet type.

Otherwise, in a pretty even race, Culvie Jay Dee – 1st $5.30 – might be able to get on the lure from box 2.

Perhaps the weather conditions played a part but Fickle Princess didn’t show the expected early speed.  Our second pick Culvie Jay Dee did and lead all the way.

Rugs Challenge

Keep in mind pricing for the rugs challenge is extremely volatile – if you’re prepared to follow after the bookies update their prices, you can often find some unexpected value, especially if a rug has better chances coming up.  I’ll update these later in the day.

M3 – PN

The red rug (1) looks the best chance and the bookies agree.

M9 – PN

Green (6) and black and white (2) both rate on top.  No value with box 2 but box 6 is worth a dollar currently paying $12.

M8 – Addington

An interesting challenge.  Box 7 (black) looks clearly the best bet and the bookies agree although the black rug is paying $3 at present.  That reflects the fact that the better chances are in the second half so expect to see the price lengthen if things go as planned.  There’s two possible risks – the black rug gives the other rugs too much of a head start or the polar opposite – the black rug picks up early unexpected points and any value disappears.

 

Late Quaddie

If there’s any bonus money carried forward, I’ll post a suggested quaddie/s later in the day.  On an average day of punting last week, we managed to pick up a slice of the late quaddie with some carry forward which helped balance the books!

There was a small carry forward at PN but two anchors meant that the quaddie was never going to pay much.  That said, the outsider won and the quaddie paid $350 – great money with Mr Ebby being clearly in the mix being rated near enough first equal by the Predictor.

Good luck!

 

David