Selections Monday 22 April 2019

Updated at 3.15 with a suggested late quaddie ($800 carry forward)

A bit of a change with the Monday CD meeting being at Whanganui today.  Some even races as is pretty much always the case at Hatrick.

Perhaps the race of the day is Race 5 which sees the return of the King of Hatrick, Sir Duggie.  He’s already been knighted for services to punters.  I’m happy to watch this race but all eyes will be on Duggie who suffered an injury in the Group 1 Railway Sprint.  If he’s back to his best, he should be winning although in his absence Bigtime Wendle has started to string the wins together.

Just the one meeting with 12 races and two quaddies.

Bet of the Day – M3 R11 Bigtime Bremner (6)

The way the bookies have priced race 11, I think we can find some value.  Bigtime Bremner (6) and Hypocritical (1) share the favouritism – Bremner is paying $3.20FF while Hypocritical is paying $14.  The sectionals and ratings tell us that these two have the early pace and the speed to win this race.

One dog I think is overs is Hard Merch (3).  He’s escaping C5 so will find this easier and while he had two box 1 draws in his last three starts, he prefers being drawn out a little wider.  He’s not the strongest but he’s the type of dog that on his day can pick the jump and get away from the rest, especially if there’s any trouble.

I always prefer to label a dog that has the best chance of using the rails – it simply takes a lot of doubt out of the equation.  So I am a little reluctant to label a dog drawn in box 6.  However, the speed map suggests he could get an early uncontested lead and if that happens he will be tough to run down.  I’d through the others into the mix for the quaddie and you could potentially have smaller units on the second and third picks to spread your risk.

Again, the first 5 strides told the story – BB simply missed the kick and from there on Hypocritical just needed to follow the rails and it was all over.  Our second pick so not all lost as it keeps us live in the quaddie.

Lay of the Day – M3 R8 Bigtime Bee (1)

Bigtime Bee is far too short for me in what looks an open race, at least according to the Predictor.  You could potentially make a case for 5 of 6 of this field.

There’s a couple of reasons I’m happy to bet against Bigtime Bee.  First, the sectionals and speed map tells us there will be a real competition of early spots down the back straight.  Second, while she’s still got time ahead of her, she’s yet to have won her way out of C2 and a couple of dogs here have raced in C3 or higher.

Finally, and perhaps the key to the race is that I don’t think she’s best drawn on the inside.  She will look to head out and with the bulk of the rest of the field heading towards the rail that could be disastrous.  She’s only won once from inside box 7 and once from four starts in boxes 1 or 2.  She’s not going to be helped by Alamein Tane who has some early speed too.

I think the $2.40 is much too short so that should provide some value elsewhere.  Bigtime Charlote has come off the reserves bench but the bookies haven’t missed her – she’s currently paying $3.50.  Breed Apart has the early speed to put herself in the race and she shows up in the best closing sectionals.  Nice value at $6.50FF.  Alamein Tane is likely to pay close to double figures and is not the worst especially if the favourite tries to put the brakes on indicate turning right.

After about 5 strides all the analysis went out the door … Bigtime Bee picked the jump and that was all she wrote.  To make matters worse, there was carnage behind and the selections ended up at the wrong end.  Let’s hope the quaddie gives us some cheer!

Rugs Challenge

M3

The Predictor has box 4 on top and so too do the bookies.  Not paying a lot at $1.90.  However, you don’t need too many upsets for the odds to change dramatically.  Bigtime Stella in race 1 is the second favourite but she is very slow out of the boxes.  It’s not inconceivable that she will miss a place so i’d be prepared to watch race 1 and see if the bookies offer a bit more value on the blue rug.  The one significant factor in the favour of the blue rug is that it is the only rug with 12 starters today and there are a couple of small fields too.

Late Quaddie

If there’s any bonus money carried forward, I’ll post a suggested quaddie/s later in the day.

Update at 3.15 – There’s an $800 carry forward.  I’ve gone wide in the first two legs and then worked around a couple of runners I like in the last 2 legs.  I’m reluctant to leave Bigtime Caleb out in the first leg so it ended up being a field job.  To get at least 10%, I had to go skinny in leg 3 so I hope I don’t end up with egg on my face courtesy of Hard Merch!

R9 – 1, 3, 4, 7, 8, 9 – 3 1st $7.90
R10 – 2, 3, 5, 7, 8 – 3 1st $7.70
R11 – 1, 6 – 1 1st $3.80
R12 – 1, 2, 6 – 1st $3.2

$18 for 10% Quaddie $722.40 return of $72

Good luck!

 

David