A low key day at Palmerston North today with just 11 races. That said, Neil has upped the pressure today so hopefully we can deliver.
As Neil mentioned, we’ve been having a bit of success recently. One of the main contributing factors has been the sectionals – opening and closing splits – which we have been working on over the last 6 months. They have been a great assistance – in our view, they should be made available to all punters but that’s another debate.
One word of caution – with the move to sprints over 410m, it will take a while before we build up a decent bank of uptodate times. There’s a surprising difference between the previous 375m and the 410m and an even bigger difference with the much shorter sprints at Whanganui. For example, Articulator in race 2 is currently paying $2.20FF but has only raced over 305m at Whanganui so you’re taken a risk first up over 410m.
Bet of the Day – M3 R10 Dynamite Danger (2)
I’m happy to be a little hypocritical and recommend a dog with just one start of today’s distance – Dynamite Danger.
It does cover with a caveat. The last couple of weeks, I’ve been pretty bullish on my best bet and using Neil’s scale would have labelled them 4/5 or even 5/5.
I think Dynamite Danger is 3/5 but is paying great money at $3.80FF.
There’s a couple of things I like about Dynamite Danger today. First, he will appreciate the better draw and has run some top times from box 2. He will be helped considerably by Bigtime Emjay in the red rug being consistently slow out.
2 starts back, Danger ran 3rd in his only start over 410 but there was no disgrace in that being beaten by Bigtime Pete (track record holder over 410) and Bigtime Shine. While the time wasn’t flash, Noah and the Ark were making solid ground down the outside it was that wet so the run was a lot better than it looks. The start prior, he was beaten by Bigtime Shine over 375m.
One of the reasons why Danger is paying a little overs is because of the form of Big League Diva who has been in sparkling form in the lower grades. But she’s now in open class and the times and sectionals suggest she will struggle.
He maps to get to the rails and I think the biggest danger will be Bigtime Emjay. However, the map suggests both Danger and Queen Big League could cross him which won’t help his chances.
It’s not the strongest C5 race we’ve seen at Palmerston and while I don’t think Bigtime Danger is as dominant as a couple of runners we’ve backed the last couple of weeks, there certainly is some great value today.
Almost the perfect day but hats off to Queen Big League who stepped up and gave them a whopping. Back again next Monday.
Lay of the Day – M3 R8 Bigtime Alfie (4)
As I noted in the intro, there’s a few runners who are very short based on reputation rather than anything else due to the change of sprint distances so tread carefully.
I think Bigtime Alfie is one of the better chances in R8 but I don’t have him as a $2.20 chance.
In my view, there’s a few flags – he’s drawn midfield, he doesn’t have the best box speed and his recent performances haven’t been all that flash. In fact only one dog is rated worse over the last 6 starts. His better performances have come from either inside or outside boxes or earlier in his career when it was easier from the squeeze boxes.
I think Mister Ebby is great value at $7 from box 1. He looks like he might get the early lead too and has run the closing sectionals to make the favourite work hard. Tuff Mr Tee is another who has a good closing sectional and it is a race without a lot of blinding early speed.
Race 8 is the first leg of the quaddie so I wouldn’t be anchoring the favourite.
Pretty much to script – the favourite jumped better than expected but that reflected the lack of speed in the race. Once Mister Ebby pushed up on the rails as the map suggested, it was a pretty low stress result – great money at $8.
A couple of other short priced favourites I’m happy to watch due to the lack of exposed form are:
- Race 2 Arcticulator – racing over 105m longer than previous starts – beaten after leading and having every chance
- Race 3 Funky Facts – great finish but was extremely slow away first NZ start – winner so worth reviewing its run for future reference
- Could have added Lochinar Blaze in race one – ran round paying $1.12FF and could only manage third.
The rugs challenge looks extremely open at this stage – I’ll update once a few races have been completed. The Predictor has 6 boxes covered by just a couple of points. There could be some value depending on the early results.
No clear standout and no value with the red rug so we’ll stay out of this for the foreseeable future. The only rug I think has a lot of value is the green rug but the $151 on offer tells us it’s most likely left its run too late.
If there’s any bonus money carried forward, I’ll post a suggested quaddie/s later in the day.
With the possibility of an upset in the first leg and the opportunity to go short in the middle legs, a small investment could be worthwhile:
R8 1, 2, 3, 4 – we could have anchored the red rug after all!
R9 5, 6
R10 1, 2
R11 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
$16 for 20%