Selections Monday 8 April 2019

Recommended bets follow.  A reminder that Palmerston North sprints are now over 410 metres.  it’s worth noting for a couple of reasons.  First, we don’t have the same depth of data about starts over the distance.  Second, it’s even harder to compare sprint form at Hatrick (305m) compared to Palmerston North.  We’ll monitor this over the next couple of months.

Bet of the Day – Bigtime Cooper M3 R4 (2)

I’m not normally a fan of dogs up in class – we’ve seen plenty of examples in the Lay of the Day where a dog has been a flattrack bully.  Up in class, it finds things a lot tougher even with a picket fence formline.

However, the sectionals give us confidence that Bigtime Cooper can lead from box 2 – he has the three fastest opening splits, is drawn well and the dog on his inside is normally extremely slow away.  The form from box 2 looks like a concern but two of those runs were over 520 where he lead easily then fell away like the Warriors defence on a bad day.

So a nice drawn box speed and a decent closing sectional should see Bigtime Cooper lead all the way.  Happy to take the $1.95FF – I wouldn’t be surprised to see that come in a bit.

If you want to multiple up with another dog that should be winning, Turanzo’s Terror (1) in race 10 is short at $1.75 $34 for every $10.

Won exactly how you want an even money shot to win.  The sectionals gave us a great degree of confidence and once he got away safely, it was simply a matter of waiting for the collect.  Hopefully the second leg of our multi will go to plan as well.

The multi was never in doubt after 50m – easy money in the end.

Lay of the Day – M3 R5 – Bigtime Marley (1)

I think Bigtime Marley is too short at $2.70 in race 5.  On paper, there’s a lot to like.  Here’s downgrading and has box 1.  However, he looks to be one of those dogs that instinctively wants to push out from the rails from the jump.

Three starts back at Hatrick, he drew the red rug but was a little slow away before making up ground then tried to push out.  He might be have a bit of assistance with Bigtime Sam likewise not a great fan of the rails but it does set it up for dogs on the outside who can get a clear run.

Based on their sectionals, Bigtime Serena (7) and Plan Stan (5) are just too of the chances in what is a very open field.

I’d be happy to throw Bigtime Marley into the mix for exotics but I couldn’t back him with confidence at $2.70.  If he is beaten and indeed if he is beaten, it does put some extra zing into the rugs challenge where box 1 is the clear favourite.

A funny old race but the favourite never looked like winning although he bobbed up in the minors.  The top rated dog in the Predictor took out the race.

Rugs Challenge

M3

The rugs challenge could be worth tracking.  The Predictor has box 1 on top – just – but the bookies have it at $1.75 so no value there.  The bookies have made Bigtime Coco in race 1 the favourite – she blew the start first time to the races so it will be interesting to see how she goes.  Certainly box 1 has strong chances in the second part of the card but it could be possible for another rug to rack up some points and get a decent lead.  For example box 2 is the bookies third elect and is paying $8.50 and looks like it has strong chances in a good number of the early races.

I’ll provide an update around race 7.

After race 6, box 1 has just fought back.  Box 2 was given it a decent run for its money but the last win to the red rug has put the number 1 box back on top.

Interestingly, prior to race 9 box 1 had drifted to $2.80 which given the respective chances was good money.  So just to make life interesting, I was cheering for boxes 1 and 2 in race 9!

Late Quaddies

If there’s any bonus money carried forward for either meeting, I’ll post a suggested quaddie/s later in the day.  The last leg of the late quaddie looks a great betting race – so many options!

No carry forward – the ratings cleaned up the early quaddie. The late quaddie looks pretty open except for the potential anchor in R10.

 

Good luck!

 

David