Selections Monday 1 April 2019

Two meetings today with 26 races carded.  Keep in mind that most of the dogs running in the sprints at Palmerston North today have been running over the shorter 375m.  At least from now, we will have a standard sprint distance at the Manawatu of 410m.

As is often the case with the predominantly lower class races, there’s a lot of open fields and plenty of races to lose your money so try and work around some races where your have a bit of confidence.

Bet of the Day – M9 R9 Just One Smile (1)

This race looks a race in two between Just One Smile with Kiwi Boy or possibly three with Blitz Em Rene returning after a small break.  It’s certainly not the strongest C5 sprint we’ve seen at Manukau so you would expect the winner to come from one of these three.

Just One Smile has drawn box 1 and has a pretty decent record from box 1.  More so, there’s no speed immediately outside her so if she does drift a little wider she shouldn’t be impeded.

She looks a good bet for multis paying $2FF.  She has the best opening split and the two best closing sectionals so only a bad jump will beat her.

Pretty much to script.  Not blistering early speed but enough to hold the rail and as the map showed she was likely to have the space along the inside.  The confidence came from the sectionals which showed she would likely finish best and she did.  Just how you want to see your even money shot run.

Lay of the Day – M9 R13 – Waiterimu Ripper (1)

We’ll stay at Manukau for the lay of the day.  Waiterimu Ripper is actually a dog I have plenty of time for but would simply prefer him to have a wider draw.  He just doesn’t seem comfortable on the inside.  If he does find space from the boxes he tends to look wider.  He does close well but that instinct to go a little wide from the boxes could prove costly.  He hasn’t won from three starts in the red rug.

Both Decision (3) and the other short priced runner Burning Rain (7) have good early pace.  One for a bit of value could be Banjo Hope (5) who downgrades for this event.  Not the quickest but sectionals show he could be in the mix as well.

A pretty rough run race but the Ripper simply missed the start and really wasn’t in it.  Never looked like a $2 shot so hopefully you saved your money.  Unfortunately, the alternatives didn’t show up.

Rugs Challenge

M3

Looks a very open challenge although the bookies have box 1 as the favourite.  Box 5 and 7 look like they have stronger chances after the first couple of races so they may drift in the market and provide some value if you’re prepared to give the other rugs a bit of a head start.

M9

The predictor and the bookies agree about the top two rugs with the red (1) and black (7) rugs dominating the market.  The black rug is tempting at $2.50.

Late Quaddies

If there’s an bonus money carried forward for either meeting, I’ll post a suggested quaddie/s later in the day.

 

Good luck!

 

David