Selections Monday 18 March 2019

Back to the two meetings and 15 races.  Don’t forget the terminating Pick 6 – starts M3 R10.  No updates today.

Bet of the Day – M9 R2 Bigtime Shadow (4)

I don’t normally back to back my best bet but the way Bigtime Shadow won last week, he’s heading for higher grades.  He gets to go around in class 1 today so no issues there.  The sectionals tell us that even if he is a relatively slow away he should still be in the first couple and there’s every chance he could lead.  He’s also in the mix for the best closing sectional so he can do it in both legs.

He won’t pay a lot of the tote but he does look the obvious anchor in the Pick 6.

Bookies have rated him fairly at $1.80FF and I wouldn’t be surprised if he started shorter.

Lay of the Day – M9 R4 – Bigtime Levi (8)

Levi is a good dog who is running good races at present.  Typically, he gets back but has a strong closing sectional.

He’s pretty long for a favourite at around $3 but I don’t see him as anywhere near an anchor in the pick 6.  It looks like a field where you may need to go wild – possibly even Freddy Field!

The main issue for me is that there are at least 3 or 4 dogs who will be on the early pace – Bigtime Forest (1), Blazin’ Carter (6), and Bigtime Tears (7).  And with a couple of those runners on his immediate inside, it will make it even tougher for Levi.  Bigtime Caleb (3) and You Can Be (2) also have the ability to get away quickly so Levi will be seeing the rear view of a few dogs after the start and will need to be outstanding to win from there.

I think he will need a bit of luck today with this field and that might even be the clue to the pick 6 – the field!

Rugs Challenge

M3 The bookies have box 1 at very short odds and the Predictor also has box 1 on top – just.  Box 8 is the next best on the Predictor and is paying $10 so at least there’s some value there!  Box 1 looks to have a couple of well placed runners but does have 1 scratching – box 8 has runners in every race.  However, as we’ve seen in the past, all it takes is a couple of upsets and the game changes.