A bit strange to have Palmerston North going around on a Wednesday – it just feels like another Monday.
Just 12 races but we found some great value last week so lets see what we can do on a Wednesday.
Bet of the Day – M3 R9 Bigtime Shadow (1)
The manual on finding a winner in dog racing tells us ever time – box speed is gold. So while Bigtime Shadow is up in class, he’s got the perfect race to win in C1 with no real noted runners with early pace. He’s only raced twice over the course in distance but his opening splits are in the top 3 for this lot. From the inside draw, he shouldn’t have any problems getting on the lure and he should have enough strength to lead them all the way.
Perhaps the next best is Bigtime Hunter (2). He’s normally slow away – relatively – but the sectionals suggest in this line up he has a chance of turning the tables and being in the leading group. He could get a drag in from Bigtime Shadow in box 1.
If both the inside dogs miss the start, it could be a fascinating race with a most of the field being slow away and more than a couple having strong closing sectionals.
That of course should set it up for Bigtime Shadow who’s currently paying nice money at $2.90.
Great money at the $2.90 and no surprises the price came in significantly. Never in doubt and the second best ran to the script too.
Lay of the Day – M3 R5 – Bigtime Banjo (2)
As we’ve mentioned a couple of times, finding a short priced runner that is likely to lose can set you up for significant overs. Things worked almost to absolute perfection last week but we did easily find the double figure winner.
I think there’s a couple of significant flags with Banjo. First, he’s up in class which is always a question mark. Second the draw – he’s only had one win from inside box 5 and that was in C0. He will be looking to head wide which will quite possibly spell disaster.
There’s a number of possible scenarios to consider. If Banjo does take a step or two to the right, that should make it easier for Naharis ($4.20FF) in box 1. Retail Mayhem in box 4 maps to lead but he’s been getting run down late in his races. His effort last week when bet of the day was underwhelming. Cool Wolf ($14) and Blackjack Man ($14) both appeal as runners with early speed and a decent closing finish while Van Jack ($8) is a notable closer. He’s got a good record over the course and distance but does get back.
With the clear doubts about the short priced favourite, perhaps the strategy is to play trifectas and first 4s around a few runners.
Again, another great example of how finding dogs that are likely to lose can help generate significant overs. The trifecta wasn’t difficult to find – the first three were in the top four with the fourth runner being the favourite who we predicted was poorly drawn. The trifecta payed massive overs at $348.10. Hope you got some!
The Predictor suggests three rugs have the best chance 4,3 and 7. The bookies agree with the first two – blue (4) is $2.60 and white (3) is $4.80. if the favourites get rumbled in the early races, the black rug looks to have a stronger second half of the card so is good value at $15. However, as we’ve seen before, runs on the board count and the blue rug does look to have some strong chances early on.
There doesn’t look to be a lot of value in the late quaddie with a couple of potential anchors in the first two legs. However, if our lay of the day gets beaten, we could get some extras on the early quaddie.
R2 1, 3, 8
R3 4, 8
R4 1, 3, 4, 5
R5 1, 2, 4, 5, 6
Three legs out of four … a bit silly really as the leg we missed was won by the dog with the best box speed!
$12 for 10%