Selections Monday 25 February 2019

Two meetings with racing at Auckland and Palmerston North today.  The Auckland meeting is a lower class meeting following the heats for the Auckland Cup and Railway Sprint yesterday.

Bet of the Day – M3 R7 Fancy Fifita (1)

Fancy Fifita looks a great each way bet – currently paying $5.50.  With a couple of well supported Lisa Cole runners, that price may even hold up today.

There’s a number of things to like about his chances – he’s recently downgraded, he’s drawn the inside alley, and he’s won the most races track and distance.  He’s 3 wins from 10 starts in box 1 with 4 places which underlines the each way value.  He maps to get a reasonable start although the sectionals suggest he won’t be the first out.  However, of the dogs with the early pace, he really stands out as having the strongest closing sectional.

Otherwise, it’s a pretty open affair with Bigtime Jasmine (3), Bigtime Honey (7), Eye Know (6) and Bigtime Steve (2) all needed to be considered for exotics.

That said, I like the value offered on Fancy Fifita and a recent downgrader from box 1 paying over $5 has to be good money.

Easy place money but after the jump I had hoped to see him kick away.  Just beaten for second with the trifecta easily found.

Lay of the Day – M3 R9 – Bigtime Alfie (6)

No Bigtime Lilah today so I’ll need to find another favourite to take on.

It’s interesting to compare the prices offered between Bigtime Alfie (R9) and Monster Fish (R12) both at Palmerston North.  Both are around the $1.50FF mark.  The Fish is a living racing legend at Palmerston North while Alfie won from box 1 at Hatrick last start in a C1.

It’s not that I don’t think Alfie can’t win but I simply couldn’t take the $1.50 on offer.  He’s yet to win in four starts at Palmerston North and as I pointed out, his top time last start was from box 1.  Today’s he’s coming out of box 6 and the wider draws have tripped up much better dogs – such as the Fish.

The sectionals also suggest that he may struggle to get the lead he got last start although he does have the best closing sectional (just).

I agree it’s not the strongest field but he’ll need everything to go in his favour from the start.  There could be early pace from Tuff Mr Tee (1), Cawbourne Assist (7) and Flying Huey (5).  Hashtag Bless won here two starts back and a similar effort today would be very competitive.

One of those days – Alfie jumped and got on the lead which wasn’t what was planned and from there it was all in his favour.

Rugs Challenge

M3 (Palmerston North) – box 3 (white) is on top in the predictor and the bookies have it a very short favourite too.  However, the predictor suggests it’s a lot more even than that so I’d be happy to watch the first few races to see if prices change.

M9 (Manukau) – box 7 (black) rates on top and could be worth a couple of dollars for interest as it’s paying $8.  The Predictor has it on top and it’s the only rug without any scratchings.