Selections Monday 11 February 2019

All the action today is in the second meeting (M9) with the bet of the day and lay of the day.  A win for a bet of the day would also boost the chances of the preferred rug in the rugs challenge.

Bet of the Day – M9 R3 Bigtime Leads (3)

Bigtime Leads has been racing consistently in recently weeks but has been finding one or two just a fraction better on the day.  2 weeks back she ran a close third in a good rating to our bet of the day, Bigtime Caleb.  Same last week when she was second to You Can Be rating 60 which would be enough to beat the field comfortably today.

She maps to get a quick start and hopefully a winning break.  She doesn’t have the best closing sectional but she’s not a weak closer now.

$2.70 is short enough but given she looks the obvious leader and is top rated, I’m happy to take it.

Absolutely perfectly to the script. Jumped and while she didn’t street them, always had them covered.  When a dog has early speed, a kind draw, and the ratings to match, you can bet with some confidence.

Lay of the Day – M9 R1 – Bigtime Lilah (2)

I don’t normally like to go back to the well … it’s often empty anyway.

Over the last 18 months, we’ve had a lot of success with finding reasons NOT to back dogs who the market has priced as far too short.

We didn’t quite get the result last week – Bigtime Lilah looked in trouble but managed to get up down the straight.  However, after yet another win AND drawing box 1, she went out a short priced favourite again on Friday night and got well and truly beaten.

As we noted last week, she’s still new to the racing game with now just 6 starts.  Friday’s race was her first from inside box 3.  We’d already noted that she wasn’t electric out of the boxes and that gets exposed as she climbs the grades.

What became apparent on Friday night is that she looks to get away from the rails off the boxes.  Last week, box 8 suited her perfectly while box 2 today does not.  Amazingly, on Friday night Cawbourne Zulu managed to get ahead of Bigtime Lilah at the first marker.  Even if she can avoid Cawbourne Zulu who’s also in today’s field, Bigtime Sam will be looking to head towards the rails.

It looks a really competitive race with Queen Big League and Bigtime Chris showing early speed while Cawbourne Zulu is one with strong swooping claims.  Caveman Sam won’t mind the outside box and will have natural improvement after his first run back last week following a two month break.

On that basis, Bigtime Lilah is no value at $1.90FF.

Wow, don’t know whether to laugh or cry after that one.  The early race went exactly as predicted with Lilah looking to push out and was never going to win … except for the biggest shemozzle seen in a race at the top turn for years.  With the luckiest of runs, she only just won.  A moral victory perhaps but the TAB never pays out on moral victories!

Rugs Challenge

M3 – a very even rugs challenge with the Predictor having four rugs covering just 3 points so not much help today.  So we’ll pass on the first rugs challenge.  The bookies like box 1 which is the favourite at $2.10 so value to be found elsewhere.

M9 – The top 2 rugs are white (box 3 – 7 points) and black (box 7 – 5 points).  The predictor has box 3 collecting in four races – all except race 1.  If our prediction with the lay of the day is correct, then race 1 could be a lot more open than the bookies expect as well.  So happy to put box 3 on top.  Box 3 currently paying $3.20 but it could go out a bit if Cawbourne Zulu doesn’t place in race 1.  That said, if Zulu does snag a point or more, the price will come in considerably.  I’d split any investment – half before race 1, half after.

Box 3 shared the spoils with Cawbourne Zulu helping in race 1.  If she had won, the white rug would have taken all the choccies.