Selections Monday 4 February 2019

Another day with some open fields.

Best Bet – M3 R7 – Little Scamp (2)

I’ve gone for some each way value with the bet of the day with Little Scamp in race 7.  The $1.65 fixed top 3 is more you’ll get for a couple of the short priced favourites.

Last start, Little Scamp ran second to Bigtime Jetty who goes around in the next race at $2.50FF.  Her closing sectional was just .02 outside the best of the day.  She isn’t the fastest out of the boxes but she has enough early speed at times to put herself in the race as we saw last week.  There’s not a lot of box speed in this race and the dog in box 1 maps to be slow out so Little Scamp should have enough pace to a clear run and with her closing sectionals she should be too strong.

The favourite Bigtime Molly (8) looks to have the early speed but is up in class and her two recent wins have both been from inside boxes.

The King of Manawatu raceway, Monster Fish, goes round in the last race of the day (M9 R5).  Like the lay of the day, his price is getting skinny at $1.38FF so we might watch him win this week.

A classic greyhound race where the dog with the best box speed got in front and was never headed.  Little Scamp showed its closing speed but ran into traffic problem and was never going to win after a slow start.

Lay of the Day – M3 R10 – Bigtime Lilah (8)

To be fair, I think Bigtime Lilah is a pretty good chance of winning the last race of the first meeting.  It’s just that i couldn’t be backing a dog having its fifth start and paying $1.22.

She’s not electric off the boxes as we saw last start where she settled third.  She hasn’t drawn box 8 before but she has won from boxes 6 and 7.  She’ll likely hold her line which will mean she could actually avoid any problems on her inside.

Even so, the opening sectionals show there could be three dogs making the early running – He’s A Sharkie (2), Bigtime Sandy (4) and Three Of hearts (5).  Both Sharkie and Sandy have quicker closing sectionals than Bigtime Lilah although that’s based just on one race.

So this is more a classic case of no value – given the risks involved, a small investment on He’s A Sharkie or Bigtime Sandy could pay overs or you could look to play the trifectas or first fours.

Race starts at 4.00pm.

Humble pie coming my way but it took a long time for Lilah to get her way.  A considerable difference in quaddie payouts too.

Rugs Challenge

Not a lot of value in the second rugs challenge – it looks pretty open.

However the Predictor has boxes 2 and 4 clearly on top in M3 and there’s a bit of value around both with the stripes (2) currently at $6 and the blue rug (4) at $8.50.  As we’ve noted in the past, these odds can change dramatically during the course of a meeting so it pays to monitor the changes.

 

2019-02-04T16:02:04+00:00