Selections Monday 28 January 2019

Just the 12 races today and a relatively low key meeting as well.  The better bets appear to be later in the card.

Best Bet – M3 R10 – Monster Fish (5)

The Fish has pretty much become the King of the Manawatu – he’s won 13 from 22 starts over the 457m.  He wins by having the early speed to make the running and has found few who can run him down.  There doesn’t look to be much in this race that will challenge him for the lead – Big League Diva might be able to push up from the inside draw.  The Fish has a pretty solid record from the squeeze boxes too so that shouldn’t be a worry.

The best of the closers are the Turnwald pair of Arden Emgrand and Fusion Cronulla but most of the time they’ve given the fish too much of a head start.

Monster Fish looks fairly priced at $1.90FF.  A nice multi with Bigtime Caleb in the last would return around $65 for every 10.

The $1.90FF look pretty generous now – a pretty straight forward way to nearly double your money.  Fingers crossed for the multi now.

Not quite as easy as the first leg of the multi but Caleb ground away along the rail and got there when it mattered.  Really surprised what Caleb paid on the tote.

Lay of the Day – M3 R5 – Bigtime Marley (3)

I think Bigtime Marley is no value at all in Race 5.  He’s having just his second start in C2 and placed 6th in his first attempt.  He’s only had 8 starts in a brief career but has yet to lead at the first marker – even in C0.  His last 2 starts he’s been last out and there looks to be pace around him.  On that basis alone, the $2.20 looks like no value.

The early pace looks to come from Judge Me Jackie (5) and perhaps Lightning Lu (2).  Homebush Belle is another who might press up from box 6.

Of the closers, White Comet (4) and Kirkham Webby (1) look the best but Kirkham Webby doesn’t appreciate the red rug.

The one thing in the favour of the favourite is that it does look a very open race.  Perhaps White Comet (4) is the best each way value currently paying $7FF.

We got a lot more right than wrong – importantly, we were confident that the favourite would get beaten – it did get second, but it’s all about the win.  Kirkham Webby was my second selection but we can no longer say he doesn’t appreciate the red rug.  Hope you saved your money on the favourite.

Rugs Challenge

Just the one challenge today with boxes 3 and 7 looking the best bets although the challenge does look open today.  No great value with the prices the bookies have offered so we will keep a watch on the prices offered in play.

After race 9 it’s down to box 7 ($1.50) and box 2 ($2.70).  

 

2019-01-28T17:13:20+00:00