Selections Monday 14 January 2019

There’s some competitive racing across the two venues today and, to be fair, the bookies seem to have done their homework.  There’s a couple of races where there’s one or two dogs that look likely but the price doesn’t justify the risk.

Update at 1.35

Addington is all go so hopefully the track will note scuttle the bet of the day in the first.

Update at 12.30

There’s some doubt about the Addington meeting because of the amount of rain over the last 24 hours.  I’ll update this page with the latest and will also revisit any races at Palmerston North.

 

Bet of the Day – Addington M7 Race 1 – 1.50 pm – Cisco Reign (3)

Three days ago, he looked a good bet but blew the start.  He recovered well but was beaten by the red rug – Addington has a distinct advantage to the number 1 alley.  Even so, his last start rating would have been enough to beat this field based on the best of their last six starts.

Today, he looks like he has enough early pace to get across to the rail – the two dogs on his inside have been consistently slow away.  So long as he doesn’t blow the start again, he looks to have too much strength and his closing sectionals tell us that he just needs a clear start to win.

In terms of the other runners, I think Cry Lonely (8) is under the odds – just seven starts for one win and no wins track and distance.  Unless there’s carnage at the start, he doesn’t look to have the early speed.  The bolter in this lot is Goldstar Mika (2).  She won a few months back paying telephone numbers.  The speed map says she is slow out but she has generally jumped better from the inside boxes and has a decent closing sectional too.  Epic Fantasy (7) looks the early leader but hasn’t yet won from outside box 5.  Second back after a long break so should be improved on the first up effort.

I rate Cisco Reign $2.20 in this race and currently paying $2.70FF.

Blew the start but still had enough gas – and smarts – to win.  Impressive in the end.  Our bolter ran a top second and almost caused a boilover.  Great start to the day.

Lay of the Day – Addington M7 Race 8 – 4.10 pm – Sefton Force (1)

Based on the ratings, the main thing in Sefton Force’s favour is the red rug.  I’ve been burned too many times by the curse of the red rug so it at least puts Sefton Force into the mix but I’d be wanting more than $2.80 to back it.  His last start win looked good but the time was underwhelming.  He needed all of the long strait at Ascot Park to get across the line.  I also think the red rug doesn’t suit – he looks like he’s wanting to move out away from the rails and that’s just going to cause trouble.  His best rating (over the last 6 races) is the worst of the field.  So hardly a ringing endorsement for the favourite.

Hopefully, that will provide value if we can find another dog to beat him.  Nuclear Jewel (8) looks to be well boxed for a swooping run and has the best closing sectional in this field.  The concern is that he’s not the fastest away, especially from the outside box.  For value, I like Goldstar Tasman (3) – he could be able to get a jump on these and while he’s not the strongest closer, he looks to have the better of most of these.  Nice price too around the $10.  Koroibete (7) is another who could spice up the exotics – he won’t mind the wider draw and he’s more hit and miss than the Big Bash but if he picks the jump can get in the money.

Even though there was a strong inside bias, it didn’t work in the favour of Sefton Force.  Will be interested to see the rating – he has yet to run a time at Addington.  We couldn’t find the winner but Koroibete did spice up the exotics.

Rugs Challenge

There’s three rugs challenges today with the three meetings.

NB The Rugs Challenge is now found: Sport > Racing > Rugs Challenge

M3 – Palmerston North

Box 8 looks great value at $6 although it does have 2 scratchings.  Clearly rates on top in the Predictor.  You could save on the inside box.

M9 – Palmerston North

Box 2 looks the best bet based on the ratings although rug 2 is scratched in the first race.  Currently paying around $3 which is OK money – I’d multi it up with either or both box 1 and 8 in the first meeting to get some better value

M7 – Addington

The Predictor says that the three outside boxes are the best chances and the bookies agree.  That said, with the inside bias I would be careful to lash out on this option.  I don’t see a lot of value here given that you’d need to cover three boxes.  Will see if there’s any more value later in the day.