Selections Monday 17 December 2018

Selections for both meetings are now posted.

From any of the ratings options, just click on the Selections link.  Here’s the link to the first race:

This week, we’ve added a short race summary to provide some wider context.

Any feedback, please let us know.

Great start to the day – our second selection in race 2 won and paid $20+.

David

Rugs Challenge

A reminder that the Palmerston North races are split into two meetings hence there are two rugs challenges – M3 (10 races) and M9 (5 races).

M3

The Predictor has already given a standing count … and the winner by knockout is Box 7.  It’s currently paying $2.70 so the bookies haven’t missed it either.  It’s most likely worth taking some of that now although the first two races could be a little more open than the bookies think.  On the other hand, if the black rug picks up early points, then the price will crash so given what the Predictor tells us it’s definitely worth having some of the $2.70.  I’ll update after r3.

Really interesting.  The black rug drifted out to $9 before race 3 but should come in now.  Still has a good chance.  

A disappointing end after a fair start.  Still, an interesting example of how the prices can change quickly.

M9

The bookies agree with the Predictor again – the top three rated boxes are the three the bookies like so not a lot of value on opening odds.  Keep in mind, there’s only 5 races so the odds can and do change quite dramatically.  Note also that Box 5 has only three lives chances hence why it’s paying $61!

It’s hard to disagree with the bookies this time – I think they’ve got the top three boxes right and box 1 on the fourth line is likewise a fair call.  I can see the green rug coming up with a couple of upsets which could get it to 6 points at a stretch but hard to see where any other points would come from.

The bookies and the Predictor agree 100% on the chances in the first – 8,3,2.  If that happens, then the Rugs Challenge will likely go to script.  If there’s a couple of bolters, it could make things interesting so I’ll update this thread after r1.

Late update – 8 is a late scratching in race 1 so that changes things massively.  Boxes 2 and 3 are the clear favourites.

Box 4 actually looked a reasonable chance in the ratings in the first that has shaken things up.  Box 3 is still the short priced favourite but the stripes is not in it.  I wouldn’t rule out box 1 scoring points in the next two races – currently at $7.