Selections Monday 3 December 2018

We had a great run with our bet of the day last week and almost broke the bookies’ bank.  A three-way tie for the rugs challenge meant at the very worst, we got back our original investment and some subscribers got back a lot more with the price getting out to a massive $51.

It will be hard to top that – but we’ll be trying our best.

Bet of the Day – M9 R3 Opawa Jumper (3)

I’m normally not a fan of dogs having their first race at a new venue.  However, race 3 on the second card appears to lack depth and Opawa Jumper looks a good chance.

Based on her consistent ratings, she looks the best chance in this race.  She will get back a little at the start but has good stats from box 3.  However, we know from her past racing she has a strong finish so the upside is that she should appreciate the one turn track and the longer straight than at Addington.

Powerful Lomar loves the outside box but is also having his first start at Manawatu.  He’ll find this race a lot easier but even when winning he hasn’t been rating as well as the Jumper.  Hard Merch has been hit or miss later but this does look a lot easier.

As I said, not without risks but she does look good value at $2.80.

When you jump like that, you’re no value at all.  Never a winning chance.  The only silver lining is that the box challenge is looking a little interesting!

Lay of the Day – M3 R8 Sub Eighteen (9)

I can see the logic behind the bookies view of Sub Eighteen.  He’s shown early toe in longer races and has been run down.  So the logic is that in a shorter race, he just needs to find the lead and the $2.40 is safe as houses.

The ratings show that based on the last 6 starts, there’s at least 5 dogs who are performing at similar levels so it looks a lot more open than the bookies market would suggest.

There’s a few other flags as well – Sub Eighteen hasn’t raced over the 410m previously and was run down last week over 457m so he’s at least going to be looking for the winning post. He’s yet to win or even place from boxes 4 or 5 although he does have a slow dog on his inside.

Of the others, you’d have to think Queen Big League (8) and Plan Stan (3) have claims.  Little Scamp will almost definitely be slow away but he has the ability to run a closing sectional that would give him serious swooping claims if they don’t get too far ahead at the start.

I’m happy to accept that Sub Eighteen has some definite winning claims but at $2.40 I would want to have a bit more reassurance.

OK, humble pie today which won’t have help the diet!  Looked a little suspect on the turn but hung on for the win.  Nothing really made any ground so the leaders had it to themselves.

Rugs Challenge

A reminder that the Palmerston North races are split into two meetings hence there are two rugs challenges – M3 (10 races) and M9 (5 races).

M3

You really can’t expect lightning to strike twice but there looks to be at least an outside chance with M3.

The ratings have two boxes on top – box 2 and box 6.  Behind those 2 boxes, 3 and 8 have legitimate claims also.

Box 2 has two great chances in the first couple of races and could potentially be on 6 points after race 2.  So at $2.70 it’s not great value but if it does win the first two races, the price will be slashed.  So I’d be tempted to put a chunk of my investment on box 2 as a solid bet.

Where things get interesting is that like last week, box 6 appears to have few chances in the earlier races but has legitimate claims from race 4.  So the opening price of $7.50 could blow out significantly.  The green rug could snare a point in the first race but things look less rosy in races 2 and 3 so if you want to be brave you could wait until after race 3 to see what it’s paying.

Recommended bet – box 6, save on box 2.

We had a chance in the last but once the 6 missed the jump then it was a case of whether the 4 or 8 could get up.  In the end, the saver on box 2 helped carry the day.

M9 

Box 3 does look the best of the rugs but is very short at $1.60 for a 5 race series.  If either Mr Matt (r1) or Amorini (r5) get beaten, then things could get interesting.  The ratings have 3 boxes on the second line – 1 ($5.50), 5 ($16) and 7 ($10).

A lot will come down to the first race – if Mr Matt manages to get beaten, then the odds will change dramatically.

No recommended bet although a small investment on box 1 could provide some interest, especially if the favourite gets beaten in race 1.

I’ll update this after race 1.

It’s all on now – the bookies expected Matt to win but I suspect they hadn’t allowed any points for box 1.  So advantage box 1.  Box 1 is in to $4.20 but the bookies have made box 3 even shorter.

As the bookies can attest, there’s no certainties in greyhound racing.  We needed one of the favourites in box 3 to miss out and two did.  Box 1 was great value as it turned out … just a pity I didn’t go harder from the start!