Selections Monday 19 November 2018

A reminder that all sprint races are over 410m at Palmerston North as a trial.  It does make life more interesting as we don’t have anywhere near the level of detail we have for the shorter distance.  Plus it makes it even more challenging to compare form from the sprint distance of 305m at Hatrick.

At the end of the month, I’ll provide some analysis to see if there’s been any difference in results with the changes.

Bet of the Day – M3 R6 Idol Fancy Pants (7)

I think there’s a bit of value around Idol Fancy Pants in race 6.  Along with Judge Me Jackie (1) they look the two obvious chances.  However, Jackie has yet to win from the inside alley.

Idol Fancy Pants doesn’t have blistering early speed but the speed map suggests that’s not going to be a great concern here as most of the field lack box speed.  The likely leader looks to be Spot On Hearty in the green rug which may end up giving Idol Fancy Pants the perfect drag into the race.  As it stands, she maps to be third out with no pressure from the outside alley.  She’s won 1 from 1 start in box 6 and been placed in one of 2 starts from box 8 so box 7 shouldn’t be too much of a concern.

The ratings and sectionals suggest it’s a two dog race between Idol Fancy Pants and Judge Me Jackie but the speed map says Spot on Hearty needs to go into exotics.  The only runner with any exposed form over the race distance is Goldstart Sawyer in box 5 but he maps to get back last and hasn’t rated over 25 in his last 6 starts.

At $3.50, she provides a bit of value and while you won’t get rich on $1.45 for the place, it looks like a nice contribution to multis.

Some days you just have to take it on the chin.  We had the dogs we wanted on the pace but our top pick was tackled out of the race.  And to make matters worse, the blue dog picks up the bonus points.  Not the outcome we were hoping for especially given the trick is normally to find the leaders at the first marker!  Back again after race 10.

 

Lay of the Day – M3 R10 Zipping Cobra (4)

This looks to be a head on challenge between form and performance.  Zipping Cobra will go out an even money chance based on its NZ form with 2 wins from four starts.

However, her ratings haven’t really set the world alight.  She’s yet to crack 25 in four starts in NZ.  She did win over 410m at Palmerston North but even though it was C0 and she had clear air from the first marker, she didn’t put in a dominant closing sectional.  In fact, her closing sectional wasn’t the best in the race either.

So first time over 457m there has to be at least a few question marks.  In her favour, she has shown some box speed but is up in class today.  The box speed does appear to be her one strength as most of the field are slow away.

The dangers look to be Bill’s Barker (2) and Three of Hearts (5).  Bigtime Sandy in box 7 could be the upsetter – her sectionals from box 6 at the end of October would say she’s better than a $12 shot.

It will be an intriguing race – if Zipping Cobra wins, you suspect she will have to get a decent break on them and hope for some trouble behind.  If she doesn’t have a clear break at the turn, i think she’s a risk of getting run down.

Rugs Challenge

M3 Races 1-10

The bookies have box 4 at a prohibitive $1.50.  The Predictor suggests there are three strong chances in races 5, 8 and 9 but at $1.50 for the blue rug you’d be better off to multi those together if you think they are sure things.  The bookies also have Bigtime Kiss as a $1.70 chance while the Predictor lacks enough information for the simple fact it’s her first sprint race.  Given she’s been a little slow away in middle distance races, it’s her first start in a sprint (albeit the longest sprint in the country!) and she’s up in class, there has be at least some doubt.

So if the $1.50 is too short, where’s the value?  The Predictor has boxes 5 and 3 on top respectively and they both paying attractive money – the yellow has opened at $12, the white $16.  With boxes 1 and 2 looking to have a mortgage on the first race, you may even get better odds after the first.  Also, it’s worth noting the white rug has two scratchings so only 8 chances to score.

M9 Races 1-5

This time the bookies and the Predictor agree that it looks a match race between red (1) and green (6) – both are paying just over $2.  Next best is $2 at $5.

Hard to see any value at those prices but it’s always worth following during the meeting as the prices can change dramatically.