Preview – Galaxy 295m Thursday 15 November

The first of the double dose of group one racing at Addington tonight is the Galaxy over the sprint distance of 295m.

The draw makes what was already a top race into a fascinating contest and hopefully we can unearth some stats that will help find the winner.

Box Stats

No surprises, box 1 is the “winningest” box with 20% of races won by the dog in the rocket red.  The next two in order are box 2 with nearly 15% and box three with 12.7%.

Conversely, the outside boxes have a poor record although perversely while box 4 is one of the two worst boxes at 9.6%, box 5 is best of the rest with 12%.

Speed Map

The speed map could well be crucial to finding the winner although it’s important to stress that the map reflects past performances and is not adjusted for the draw or any box bias.

Getting to the first bend in front at Addington is extremely important – 63% of winners will be in the lead at the first turn while 83% of winners will be in the first 2.  At the other end of the spectrum, just three per cent of runners will win if they aren’t in the first four at the crucial first bend.

The speed map suggests that Chitina Tin (7) and Sir Duggie (1) will lead out.  However, this is where there is a need to qualify this data.

Oskitz (2) looks like it will need a lot of luck as it maps to get back while from the outside Platinum Marshall also maps to get back.  Ironically, if there’s trouble inside, he could be the type of dog the swoops into contention, especially for place money.

Thoughts

Sir Duggie isn’t the quickest out of the boxes but puts the generally puts the burners on to get into a competitive position by the first bend.  However, he clearly prefers the outside – he’s won just 1 from 9 from box one although he does have a much better record from box 2.  However, he’s won 6 from 7 from the outside box and over half his races from box 7.

Chitina Tin has only recently joined the top class and is another who is draw upside down – he’s yet to win from box 7.

Favourite, Sheza Rippa (6) has been in outstanding form since coming back from a spell winning four on the bounce, the last three in C5.  However, the last three starts have all been from box 3 or better.  She’s won 8 from 10 races from the inside 2 boxes but only 3 from 7 from the outside three boxes.

She had by some margin the best sectionals (both opening and closing) but they come with an asterisk – it was from box 1 and she made a clean start and made the most of the favourable draw.  Her sectionals from other boxes aren’t as intimidating.

So there are flags for the three favourites and some of these are quite significant.

The dog that could easily be overlooked is Fired Up Jasper in the white rug (3).  He had the second best opening sectional over the two qualifying rounds while his other opening sectional also made the top 10 times and from box 8.  He’s in form and has won 6 from 10 races in box 2 and 3 from 9 in box 3.  With Oskitz being slow, I think he can get a on the pace and if there is trouble, especially on his outside, then he becomes even better value.

Selections

With the way the field has been drawn, I think there’s a real potential for an upset and Fired Up Jasper looks to the one best placed to benefit.  For quaddies, I would take all three but I like the value around Fired Up Jasper based on his sectionals and the way the field has been drawn.

1. Fired Up Jasper for the upset
2. Sir Duggie
3. Sheza Rippa

After the start, all the analysis went out the window.  Both the favourites got away safely and the dog in green gave Chitina Tin a lovely drag into the race.  Sadly, our top pick just wasn’t in it but that’s racing.  That said, it was clear that the Rippa was not suited by the box draw and most likely went out too short – Sir Duggie paying over $3 was nice money.

David Archibald

Formpro Ratings