Selections Monday 12 November 2018

There appears to be 5 or 6 short priced favourites today who also rate well.  It makes it a little tough to find some value but perhaps a few multis is the way to go.  We’ll also have a close look at the Rugs Challenge to see if we can find some better value.

Bet of the Day – M9 R1 Bigtime Kiss (1)

Bigtime Kiss rates on top in the Predictor and also maps to lead with the only other pace influence Swift Liberty on her immediate outside.  Swift Liberty will hold its line and then likely drift out so Bigtime Kiss should have no pressure on her outside and a clear view of the rail.  Her last two runs have been out of box 5 so the improved draw will help – not surprisingly, her best ratings performance was from box 1.

Currently $1.60FF which looks fair.

If you’re backing $1.60 shots, that’s how you want them to win.  Pretty much the ideal outcome and very much how the Predictor saw things – red to win, pink to place.  So a good result for our rugs challenge too.  And the trifecta and first four paid great money – $81 for the trifecta alone.

Lay of the Day  M3 R4 Bigtime Shine (6)

To be fair, I think Bigtime Shine is a definite chance in this race unlike say last week where I was pretty confident the favourite would be toppled and we found some outstanding value.

Bigtime Shine is currently paying $2FF and that’s more the concern for me.  By comparison, Bigtime Kiss is paying $1.60 and it looks the clear and obvious bet so I don’t see a lot of value in the $2 especially with the negatives.

For a start, the race is a lot more competitive being a C4/5.  Bigtime Eve maps to lead and will be inside of the favourite so that’s the first flag or two.  On top of that, Shine hasn’t been jumping as cleanly at Palmerston North as she has at Hatrick so there’s a risk she could get back or midfield from the jump.

There’s a number of other chances too with Bigtime Blackie likely to benefit from drawing in a little closer.  Six of the field, including Bigtime Shine, have rated 67 or better in their best rating over the last 6 races which highlights how competitive the race is.

So while I can see Bigtime Shine winning, you can also create scenarios for others which makes the $2 on offer too skinny for my liking.  Happy to watch her go around.

The Shine shone today – once she had jumped, and got so easily to the lead then she looked like a $2 shot.  Great run from the 7 who was well rated by the Predictor with the trifecta paying major overs with the two favourites.  No real damage done and clearly she has come back a stronger dog.

Rugs Challenge

M3 Races 1-10

The bookies are making it tough for us today.  The Predictor has box 5 on top and the bookies agree.  It’s opened at $2.40 – keep in mind box 5 is scratched in race 1 so the odds should be no worse after the first race.  Boxes 1 and 4 are the next in line for the bookies with both paying around $5.

The Predictor also says that box 6 and box 7 are in the wider mix.  Box 7 is paying $16 at present and does have the advantage of having 10 starters.  You’d need a few upsets for the Black rug to come through … but Black was a winning colour over the weekend.

I’d be happy to see what $5 is paying after the first and have a little on Box 7 at those prices.

As we’ve noted before, the box challenge can change considerable and I’ll keep an eye on the odds during the races.

After race 5 – Box 4 is doing the business at present with box 5 struggling.  The Black rug hasn’t been picking up enough points yet but we’re only half way there.

M9 Races 1-5

The five races for the second rugs challenge make it like the T20 equivalent and there’s a  lot more opportunity for upsets with so few races.

The bookies have box 5 on top and it does look like one of the leading changes.  Currently paying $2.40 although you would think it will be paying more after the first as it looks unlikely to get any points in race 1 and is scratched in race 2.  Monster Fish does look like a good chance in race 4.

On the next line is box 4 at $4.80 and the Predictor suggests it has at least three chances of scoring points which helps in five races.

Box one is always a chance in greyhound racing and you’d like to think it will pick up 3 points from the first race.  Struggling to see where other points will come from but it has chances in all five races.  Currently at $5.

I think the one rug where we can find a bit of value is box 8.  The downside is that there are only 4 runners across the five races and we’re expected to be fighting for no better than second in race 1.  However, the Predictor suggests there are three good chances of scoring points and it’s not without a chance in the fourth of the races.

So box 8 looks the value bet at $12.