Selections Monday 5 November 2018

It looks like a day to invest carefully.

As we’ve seen over the last few weeks, the fields at Palmerston North have been pretty even and the horse shoe track gives backrunners more of a chance than the smaller trackers.

However, the main reason for caution is that the club is now trialling running all sprints over 410m rather than the traditional 375m in order to give the runners a little more time before the first bend.  That means we have a lot less data to use for analysis while many runners are having their first crack over 410m today.  So be warned and be careful – you won’t lack for betting opportunities over the next couple of weeks.

Bet of the Day – M3 R7 Retail Mayhem (3)

It’s hard to find some value with the change to the sprint distance and a couple of very short priced runners who look like winners.

I think Retail Mayhem is one dog that will appreciate the longer sprint distance today.  He’s featured in the Top 2 closing sectionals over 375m the last two times he’s raced at Palmerston North so the extra distance should play right into his paws.  He makes to lead and has also draw the box where he has his best record.

Currently paying $4.50 which is nice each way money.  I rate him $3.50 so there’s a little bit of value.

There’s always one dog that has to spoil the party.  Little Scamp got back so far he missed the trouble and burned around the outside to dash our best bet.  Otherwise, it went to script!

Lay of the Day  M3 R9 Podium Phobia (2)

The bookies have made Podium Phobia favourite, albeit paying $3.20 on fixed odds.  On paper, it looks the form runner as it’s one of only two dogs to have won in their last 5 starts.

However, there’s a couple of major flags with Podium Phobia.  First, it’s significantly up in class – those two recent wins were in C1 and C2 while this is just his second run in C3.  Second, the speed map suggests he maps to be slowest away and if that’s the case, it will be good night nurse.

Based on the speed map, the better bets look like Three Amigos (3) Mikachu (5) and Plan Stan (8).  One of our favourites, Kirkham Coby (4) also looks like he could get a drag into the race.

Now, this is what we expect!  All the dogs read the script perfectly and our old favourite Kirkham Coby won at almost $25.  The favourite as expected missed out.

Rugs Challenge

M3 The bookies have the red rug on top at $2.70 and there’s a couple of strong chances from the inside draw.  The Predictor has box 2 on top and it’s paying nice money at $5. They look the most likely chances.

Box 5 blotted the results.

M9 It’s hard to argue with the bookies that 3 looks the winner in race 1 and the red rug wins the distance race in race 4.  Consequently, in a five race challenge, these two boxes are the two clear favourites.  The bookies next best is box 2 paying around $6.50 and it has some claims too.  Of these three, I think box 3 could potentially have 7 points after the first three races which would put it in a strong position.  It needs to be tho as there’s no white rug in race 4.  The bolter is box 8 which is paying $16.  It looks a reasonable bet to pick up a point in the distance race and the Predictor has two long priced runners in the pink on top in races 3 and 5.  That said, you’d need a couple of upsets just to get these two and the chances don’t look good in the earlier races.

Great result – box 3 and box 8 shared the points.  So we effectively got $8 on box 8 which caused the upsets in races 3 and 5.