Recommended Bets – Palmerston North, 29 October 2018

Recommended bets for today follow.

With the launch of the new Rug Challenge report, we’ll have a close look at the rugs challenge today.  With a bit of research and some patience, it can be a great way to find some value – and the new report takes away 90% of the hard work.

Bet of the Day – M3 R2 Zara Zara (3)

Zara Zara looks well placed to get the day off to a good start. She maps to be the obvious leader from box 3 with the only pressure coming from wider in box 6.  She has run the best two opening splits and has two of the best three closing sectionals over the last month.  She should get to the lead and then be strong enough to hold on.

The main challenges are Bigtime Hunter (7)  and White Comet (2).  The Bigtime dog maps to get back and hasn’t won in 10 starts over the distance – in my mind, that stat makes him very much unders at $2.70FF (opened at $2.60).  White Comet has a great closing sectional but maps to get well back as is his custom.  Will come up strongly no doubt.  Azandei could also spice up exotics.

Zara Zara opened at $2.30 and has come into $2.20.  I rate her as a $2 chance so still value.

Tough one here – hard to know whether to laugh or cry.  Let’s have a cry first.  The favourite jumped and ran and had no excuses.  So we’ll take that on the chin.  However, we did manage to pick the trifecta and it paid massive overs.  Plus our box challenge will get a boost out of that.  Still, would have been been nice to see ZZ go on with it.

Lay of the Day – M3 R9 Sub Eighteen (3)

The bookies have Sub Eighteen a clear favourite at $2.40.  However the Predictor has him rated in the second half of the field.

Every race he’s won, he’s lead at every marker. Twice at Hatrick over the longer 520m he’s been run down.  So he will need to have a clear uncontested lead to win but the map shows he will have a real challenge with the dog on his inside.  Sub Eighteen is also very recently up in class – yes, the form looks good but last month he was running around in C1 classes and today is his second crack at C3.  His ratings show that two – he’s one of 4 dogs in the field that hasn’t rated better than 50 in their last starts.  So at that price, I just think he is far too short.

I like the look of Bigtime Joshy (2) and Mikachu (7).  Both have strong ratings over recent ratings and Joshy as we’ve noted maps to be on the pace and potentially get to the rail.  To be fair, there are other chances too which makes Sub Eighteen a real risk and very happy to label him the lay of the day, especially at that price.

Rugs Challenge – M3

We’ve just released a new report – Rugs Challenge.  At this stage, the data is taken straight from the Predictor but that’s a nice way to get a high level snapshot of the races.

Unlike all other multi leg bet types, the bookies update the odds after every race so there is an element of strategy at play as well.  If you think a rug will be stronger earlier in the card than later, then get on the bookies opening odds.  If it does collect the points, the odds will undoubtedly come in.  Conversely, if you think a rug will perform stronger in later in the card, you can be rewarded for backing the rug after a race or two.

With a minimum of $1, you can also spread your bets especially in the case that you go into the last race with a live bet and the bookies are offering attractive odds on other rugs.  So it’s possible to cover rugs and guarantee a collect.

For today, we’ll operate on a nominal $10 spend and $1 units.  You can use the $1 unit to equate to your own budget.

The rugs challenge report pretty much agrees with the bookies on the three main chances – boxes 3,4,7.  I rate box 4 (blue on top) and while I’ve made box 3 the bet of the day in R2, I’ve also labelled box 3 as the lay of the day in R9.  Box 3 and 4 both look a little stronger later in the card – box three looks to have one solid early chance (Zara Zara our best bet) but nothing more until race 6.  So I’m happy to take the risk and leave box 3 out with the view that the odds will be better later in the card.

I do live box 4 but box 7 looks to have realistic chances across the most races.

So from out initial $10, I’m going to invest as follows on the opening odds:

• Box 4 $4 @ 6.5 to return $26
• Box 7 $2 @ 4.80 to return $9.60

If either box wins, we clear a profit without any further bets.  I’ll update this post after each race.

Update after r1: No points for 3,4 or 7 but box 3 has come in to $1.90 while box 4 is out to $7.50.  Conflicted next race but we will be on 3 in the next.

After R2: bet of the day missed but box 3 is now out to $2.50.  Box 4 out to $9 with a great chance in R3 to get on the board.

After R3: not the best outcome – 4 started well but seemed to get a check and lost ground and its chance before making ground late.  Still not out of it though – seven races to go.

After R4: Bookies and Predictor both on the mark – Predictor got 1-2-3 in order in 1.  Box 3 missed again as predicted and is now out over $3.  Time for box 4 to make its mark!

After R5: yes, we needed that but a comfortable win and 3 points in the rugs challenge with an odds on chance in the next. Box 7 picked up another point too.

After R6: yes again, two from two but we wouldn’t have wanted 411 m.  Bookies have box 4 as second fav now with box 1 a clear favourite.  Box 3 opened at $2.60 I think – now out to $16!

After R7: well well well, three in a row and box 4 now leads.  The Predictor suggests that box 1 will struggle to threaten from here and I’m taking the risk on Sub Eighteen.  We have three chances to collect points and I wouldn’t rule out Sam in r10 – he’s second rated.  I think box 2 could potentially win the next 2 which would put it on 11 points so I’m going to put $2 on box 2 at $7.50 for a return of $15.  So far we have invested $8.

After R8: It’s going to be tight unless Brandy can surprise in the next.  I still think 1 will struggle to catch up so really it comes down to the lay of the day.  If the 3 gets beaten in the next as I’m hoping, 3 can’t beat box 4 and we just need to pick up another point.  That leaves 2 and 7 as the main dangers.  If Brandy could snare a point, that would undoubtedly help.

After R9: Not the result we wanted but we are still a live chance.  Unfortunately, we need to come ahead of the odds on favourite but stranger things have happened. Actually I got that a little wrong – the favourite has to win to take the honours – maximum points for 3 is 10.  If the blue rug can finish third or better we’ll at the very least share the spoils.

After R10: Gutted!  We were nutted by the red rug.  Tough result but almost. Back again next Monday.