As always on a Monday, there is free access to all NZ greyhound ratings today.
I’ve tweaked the product you need to purchase for access – simply “purchase” a one day pass – it’s FREE:
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Updates with recommended bets at 11 am. First race is at 12.55.
Bet of the Day – M9 R1 Bigtime Doug (2)
Doug has been thereabouts in recent racing without getting across the line. The key today is the inside box draw along with the predicted slow box speed of the runners either side. He has a great record from box 1 and maps to get to the rails. He has the best rating last start and the best track and distance rating. It’s not the toughest C3 race and Doug has competed with some success in higher grades. He looks good value at the opening odds of $2.80FF.
To be fair, Doug had his chance and had no excuses. Hard to no whether to laugh or cry – the bet of the day dips out but it gives us a nice boost on the rugs challenge.
Lay of the Day – M3 R2 Bigtime Pete (6)
It’s just as well I’m not averse to some poached eggs as I could easily end up with eggs all around my face. Without any doubt, Pete has the legs to put this field away. However, there has to be at least a small concern about the draw and his initial box speed. He’s won 3 from 4 but those wins have come from the outside box (2 wins) and box 2. In none of his races has he led at the first bend. In his one race from a squeeze box (5) he was actually 5th at the first bend and ran second. He’s still learning ring craft so I think there’s enough flags to say he’s no value at $1.70. While he’s obviously a legitimate chance, he’s so short that it means there has to be some great value if he does get beaten.
Pretty much to the script – the way the race panned out, Pete was lucky to be in the position he was but it was still enough to trip him up. Undoubtedly he will go further but it doesn’t matter what the class of race, if you don’t have box speed you need some luck in running.
Based on the Predictor, the rugs challenge looks pretty even for both meetings. As we’ve noted in the past, the odds can fluctuate dramatically so if you have confidence in a rug later in the meeting, you can often pick up some great value.
Keep in mind the second meeting (M9) only has 5 races so anything can happen. The red rug (#1) is always a chance and the Predictor says that the red rug could pick up a few points in the last couple of races. A little bit of luck in the earlier races would mean the current $6.50 is good value but I would tread carefully today.
Nice win for the red rug in race 1 – a bit of a bonus. Odds have dropped from $6.50 to $2.30 after just one race.