As always on a Monday, there is free access to all NZ greyhound ratings today.
Two weeks ago, Paul used the free ratings to turn $3.60 into $141. We could do with some of that magic after our efforts last week but we’re back and there’s 15 races today across the two meetings at Palmerston North so plenty of opportunities.
Remember, there is a change to how you access the ratings. From today, if you don’t have a current membership you must:
- First register if you aren’t already registered
- “Purchase” the free membership (don’t worry, it costs $0!) – you can also register when you get the Free Membership plan
That’s it – once you are registered and have the Free Membership, you won’t need to do anything in the future.
Any problems or big collects, email firstname.lastname@example.org.
** Updated with my recommended bets. With daylight saving kicking in, the first race is not until 1.15pm.
Bet of the Day – M3 R7 Blackjack Man (2)
Another day where it’s hard to find a standout bet but Blackjack Man in race 7 looks like he should go around at good EW value. In part, that’s because he’s up against a first starter from Aus.
Clearly it’s hard to rate the chances of a runner having his first start in NZ but Wet Gambler has certainly got the visitors’ draw today. Based on his recent racing, he looks like he won’t be the first out of the boxes either.
On the other hand, Blackjack Man is getting a kinder draw than he’s had for a while although he did win last start from box 4. Doosh on his inside isn’t the quickest away while Thrilling Eddie is up in class and has a shocking record from box 3.
The exotics could be the way to play this race – Sozin’s Fortune and Lucha both rate well and are paying great money and you can also through Doosh and Wet Gambler into the mix for trifectas and first fours.
$3.90 on offer is good money – I rate Blackjack man more like a $3-$3.20 chance.
Lay of the Day – M3 R6 Trojan Hoarse (4)
We’re going to double up on Rugs challenge and make Trojan Hoarse the Lay of the Day. I certainly think he’s one of the winning chances but I simply don’t see any value at $1.75.
He’s won three from six (which is what the bookies are pricing) but it’s worth noting that two of those wins have come from box 1 and the third from box three. He’s yet to win from three starts outside box 3. Not surprisingly his best times have been from those draws. He’s only just graduated to C2 which is another flag – dogs can look great in lower classes but as they climb up the classes, things get tougher.
You also have to question whether the trainers share the same confidence. He’s only had the one sprint at Manawatu and his last four starts have all been over middle distances. It looks like he’s back to the sprint distance after fading last start at Hatrick yet they clearly saw him as a middle distance chaser before today.
Given the bookies have him at $1.75FF, it means that if he does get beaten there’s going to be some good money on offer. Plan Stan (6) rates on top while the Predictor also rates Cawbourne Agar (7) and Naharis in the red rug. Outside that the Predictor suggests it’s a much more even race than the bookies predict.
The bookies largely agree with the Predictor in turns of the best chances although as we’ve seen before the odds can change dramatically after a couple of races. It looks like the bookies have box 4 winning the first 2 races and have priced accordingly. That means there is a little more value around box 1 ($6) and box 6 ($10).
Not a lot of value here – box 7 rates on top and is paying $3.80. Box 1 also rates well ($4.50).