As always on a Monday, there is free access to all NZ greyhound ratings today.
Last week, Paul used the free ratings to turn $3.60 into $141. It was a good day all round – our recommended rugs challenge selection came in after opening at $10 and our bet of the day gave us little to worry about. Just the way things should be!
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Back again around 11am with my recommended bets. First race is not until 12.52.
Bet of the Day – M3 R2 Nero (1)
Another great day of racing and plenty of even fields. There’s also a number of races where there looks a couple of standout chances which might help to narrow our selections down.
For my bet of the day, I’ve gone for Nero (1) in M3 race 2. If It’s Complicated wasn’t running, I would expect the bookies would be much less generous than the current $3.30.
It’s certainly a battle of the ages with Nero having his 144th start versus 7th start for the favourite. Still, Nero isn’t fiddling around and has run third at his last three starts. He has a great box 1 record – 8 wins from 20 starts – and his ratings in his recent starts are only matched by It’s Complicated. We shouldn’t need to worry about the dog in box 2 either – she’s normally a little slow away and tends to wander away from the rails.
The favourite is having just her third race outside of maidens. Yes she’s won four in a row but three of those wins have been from boxes 1 and 2. She hasn’t always been the best out either which is a risk from box 4.
I’d rate Nero around $2.50 so at $3.30 is worth a little nibble.
That one hurt! All the dogs had read the script and played their part to perfection. All but one – Uno Eleven who jumped for the first time since the Wallabies looked like a rugby team and just did enough. It’s Complicated ran as we thought might be the case but it’s no consolation.
Lay of the Day – M3 R6 Idol Dude (3)
This race looks like a very even race. Certainly, you can make a case for Idol Dude but the Predictor has 6 of the 8 runners with a best rating between 50-60 – and the 50 belongs to Idol Dude.
He hasn’t won in five attempts at the course and distance and is just 1 from 4 from box 3. Only once has he lead out and in his 2 starts in class 2 he’s been no better than 4th out of the boxes.
That said, you can’t knock winning form but at the same time, I simply don’t seem him as a $2.30 shot. And we’ve seen plenty of times where favourites have come in for no other reason than the short price attracting bets.
So happy to bet against the Dude at that price.
We can now say with some confidence that Idol dud won’t win as it’s a late scratching. A pity we can’t now make It’s Complicated the lay of the day!
We’ve managed to find some great value bets over the last few weeks – the $10 last week was great money the way the races panned out.
Today looks a little tougher so perhaps a little more caution or smaller bets. As always, the odds offered on the rugs challenge changes after every race so you can reassess the market during the course of a meeting. From the opening odds, the best value would appear to be:
M3 – yellow (5) $3.80 and blue (4) $5.50
M9 – pink (8) $7 and 7 (black) $14 – the red rug is also in the mix but at $1.70 is hardly any value. I’d prefer to wait until after race 1 at that price.