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Back again around 11 with my recommended bets. First race is not until 12.32.
Bet of the Day M9 R5 Monster Fish (1)
Two of the better bets on the day look like there are in the second meeting – M9.
M9 R5 Monster Fish dominates the ratings and has red ink for every category apart from box speed. The red rug will certainly help, as is the fact that Bigtime Vanessa won’t be hunting for the rail but will stay in the middle of the track or wider. That will give the Fish plenty of wriggle room on the rails and potentially make it tougher for some of the speedy runners drawn wider.
Won’t get rich but little fish are sweet. Looks the obvious anchor in the last leg of the last quaddie,
I was close to making Bigtime Zack my bet of the day – he’s certainly a little more value. He’s back in C3 after racing as high as C4/5 so the drop in class will definitely help. He’s drawn well in box 2 and has a good record from there but the one significant concern is his lack of box speed. he maps to get back and even from an inside draw will need some luck. But I would certainly include in the last quaddie.
Wow. That was a nice way for the bet of the day to win. He looked like he had a challenge but once Vanessa missed the start he had all the opportunity he needed. And he needed to be good as Twinkle gave him a decent scrap but he was simply too good. He ended up closing at $1.70 after opening at $2.10 so it looks like a few people got plenty. And as I said, there was a reason I didn’t make Zack the bet of the day – box speed is gold and Zack just ran into a whole bunch of trouble.
Lay of the Day – M3 R6 – Cheese and Chalk (6)
We’ve had a lot of success and finding losers who are way under the odds. Cheese and Chalk looks like another.
The ratings suggest it’s a very even field with a number of winning chances for the $2.30FF currently on offer looks pretty stingy. On top of that, he’s coming out of box 6 and his best times have been from the inside alley where he’s avoided any trouble. The draw is even more of a risk because if he even slightly misses the jump, he’s going to have to cope with Cawbourne Brandy on his insider who will be looking for the outside fence, not the rails.
With the favourite being so short, that should create a bit of value. The bookies second elect is Idol Dude (2) and the Predictor has rated second. There looks to be a bit of value around Mitsuta (3) – he’s got a good record from box 3, best time for track and distance, and is drawn inside Brandy. He looks nice each way money at $9.80 and $2.50.
Looks a good race to play trifectas and first 4s as well and I’d work around the 3 listed above and Mark be Good (1) and Manly Monkey in 8.
Ouch! The favourites bite back. Cheese and Chalk jumped well, got no interference will unfortunately for our plans, the interference affected pretty much all of the rest of the field. Mitsuta was one of those seriously affected by the disturbance. We’ll lick our wounds and be back for the races in the second meeting.
As has become the pattern at PN now, there are TWO rugs challenges with there being two TAB meetings.
As we’ve commented before, the odds can change dramatically over the course of a meeting so it’s an option worth following if you want to look for some value.
Based on the opening prices, the value options would appear to be:
- M3 black ($10)
- M9 black ($4.80), pink ($12)
I’ll update the rugs challenge for M3 mid-meeting.
After race 5 – Box 7 opened at 10s and after race 5 is into $5 – and that’s after two races with no black rug. It’s still on if we can get a winner or two
M3 – final – great return for the black rug. Won easily but amazingly only had runners in 8 of the 10 races. The $10 was great value based on the Predictor ratings.