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Back again around 11 with my recommended bets. First race is not until 12.45.
Bet of the Day – M3 R4 Benny Burrito (2)
It’s hard to go past Benny Burrito (2) in race 4. He did it for us a couple of weeks ago when there was a ton of money on a first starter from across the ditch. Benny should actually run better from box 2 as he does head a little out to the centre of the track but there’s no too much speed on his outside. In any case, he’s shown that he has the ability and smarts to negotiate his way around the first turn and he has the power in the straight to kick on.
It does look a race in 2 with Bigtime Crackem in box 7 the main opposition. He maps to get away well although there’s always a question mark from wider boxes if the runner misses the start even fractionally.
On a day when it’s hard to find an anchor, these two look the standout bets in the third leg of the early quaddie.
Not today. Even managed to miss the race due to other commitments so a fail every way you look at it. Crackem looking for a better draw while Benny will win more too.
Lay of the Day – M3 R6 Bigtime Eve (6)
There’s been some extremely open fields at Palmerston North in recent weeks and this week is no different. M3 Race 6 is just another of these.
The ratings show the “best” rating for each runner over their last 6 races – as you can imagine, this can be quite a spread. However, in this race there’s just 15 points covering the entire field and 5 points covering the top 6!
The bookies have Bigtime Eve at $2.10FF. She is definitely one of the top chances and has a great record from box 6. She recently downgraded from C5 and made the most of the ease in class. However, the speed map today suggests she could be in the back half of the field after the jump which will mean she is no $2 shot. Interestingly, Eve has yet to win over the 375m at Palmerston but does have 5 placings from 8 starts.
She could win but I don’t see her as a $2 shot today. Cawbourne Mezza in box 2 looks well positioned based on the speed map and any problems at the start could play into her paws.
Based on the analysis, should have made Mezza the bet of the day. $4.60 was great value based on the map and the favourite mapping to get back.
Rugs Challenge – M3
The Predictor has boxes 3 and 7 on top with 11 points and box 1 next in line on 9 points. The bookies agree with that assessment and have these three rugs on top.
It’s a type of bet where at times you can take a calculated risk and hold off and look for the odds to drift if there’s no success in race 1. Of the three main chances, box 7 has possibly 6 decent chances at getting points so we’ll make that our top option. However, it looks very open today so wouldn’t go crazy.
The back rug is being worn by a first starter in race 1 so expect anything. If box 7 misses points in race 1, then the odds will likely lengthen a little from the current $4.
As I said, it does look an even contest but we’ll follow the black jersey (just like the weekend!) and see how we go.