As always on a Monday, there is free access to all NZ greyhound ratings today.
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Back again around 11 with my recommended bets. First race is not until 12.27.
Bet of the Day M3 R10 Queen Big League
Once again there are some extremely open races throughout both meetings so tread with caution or have a small crack at the rugs challenge and enjoy the races.
That said, I think Queen Big League (7) is worth a look in race 10. She has the top two ratings over the last 90 days and three of the top 10. Not one of the entire field has won over the distance so that will have to change after this race.
She’s not electric out of the boxes but the speed map suggest she will find clear out being the fastest of the outside boxes. That could help if she can get away at least to a reasonable start and there’s trouble on the inside as we often see.
The obvious dangers are Fare Dodger (2) and Tuna Speed (1). Old Gentleman Tim also has a great chance to improve on his record of 9 starts over 457m for just the 1 placing.
The confidence levels are not through the roof but at $3.30 I think Queen Big League is fair each way value and would certainly need to go into all exotics.
One of those days – we managed to get the trifecta but the bet of the day missed out! Ratings have already found some nice value winners but even if I didn’t quite find them!
Lay of the Day M3 R6 Bigtime Emjay (1)
A couple of weeks ago, we backed the speed map to upset the favourite and it so nearly worked out. The favourite was slow away as predicted but got a charmed run. Even so, the win was only secured in the last 5 metres.
Bigtime Emjay looks like another dog that is likely to get back. Clearly, box 1 is a bonus for many dogs but if a dog is a slow beginner it can be a poisoned chalice. I also think that it would be easy to be swayed by his deceptive box stats. The record of 2 starts for 1 win looks pretty good for a C3 runner but one of those runs was in C1 and the other in C0. Since he’s graduated to C2, the best away from the boxes has been third and in his last three starts he’s been 5th, 8th and 7th fastest.
To an extent box 1 will help but it won’t make him go any faster. He maps to be second slowest out of the boxes today and if that’s the case, he will need extreme luck to win. On that basis, I think he’s too short at $3.30 although if he gets the perfect run – and that is a big if – he has the raw ability to be thereabouts. The two leaders look likely to be Fantastic Teddy (5) and Bigtime Kylie (7) and they both rate strongly. For a bit of value, don’t overlook our old favourite Kirkham Coby (6) who won’t mind the outside and is still as keen as ever based on his last start.
It looks like a race where exotics (trifectas and first 4) are the way to go and if the favourite misses out we could hope for a bit of value.
In the end, that was pretty easy. The speed map was on the mark and the Predictor also had Kirkham Coby on top. A pity we didn’t get a but more out of box 7 which would have been the perfect result!
Rugs Challenge M3
Based on the Predictor, there looks to be a couple of rugs that are worth looking at.
The Predictor has box 3 (white) second best and the bookies haven’t missed either. The white rug has opened at $2.40. If you’re prepared to risk box 3 in race 1, then you will almost certainly get better odds when the odds are adjusted after the race.
The Predictor actually has box 7 on top – that would require a few value runners to place but in all but a couple of races, box 7 has legitimate claims. So the current $12 on over is excellent value.
The strategy of the rugs challenge is worth considering too. The odds are changed after each race so if the rug you like looks like it will do a lot better in the second half of the card, then you can likely pick up excellent value by holding on to a portion of your betting funds.
I’ll be adding a post this week on this betting option.
Update after r4
Well, we’ve got a pretty decent sniff. Opened at $12 and the bookies will be a little nervous as the black rug is into $3.50. The Predictor reckons we can finish like the ABs in the second half so fingers crossed.
Update after r8
A great start but the second half was much more Wallabies than ABs. So we’re out but we gave the bookies a decent scare along the way.