Selections for Monday, 20 August.
Bet of the Day – M3 – Race 2 – Bigtime Eyore (2)
We’re not going to get rich but it’s hard to go past Bigtime Eyore in the second of M3.
He dominates the ratings apart from box speed. However, the way the runners are boxed should help – the pace is further out and the dog in box 3 looks a bit slower which should give him some margin for error. Eyore is not the best beginner and that’s likely the biggest risk factor here. Conversely, the way the runners are boxed up, he comes out in the top 3 by box speed and looks to have a fair crack at the rails.
He gets a bonus run in C1 and so long as he gets away without any problems, he should be too good for this field.
Ouch! That hurts. As it turned out, he missed the start and from there was no chance. The only bonus was that the other two rugs filled two of the places.
Lay of the Day – M9 – Race 3 – Waitohi (2)
We’ve had a great run recently finding dogs that have been well and truly overpriced and consequently well under value. The last two weeks, the dogs have both gone out paying $1.70 and didn’t even run like $17 chances.
Today, there doesn’t appear to be a clear cut favourite who looks a bad bet. In part, that’s because there’s more than a few very open races.
Waitohi is a very able dog and he has shown enough in his racing in NZ to say he will win races. The problem is that he is extremely slow out of the boxes as the speed map clearly show – both Waitohi and Argus Filch make to be slow away. And as we say frequently, the chances of winning decrease exponentially if you’re not in the first couple at the first bend.
So for Waitohi to win, he’s going to have to go around under over or through pretty much the entire field.
At the other end of the speed map, Spare Some Time (7) looks set to lead and while he’s likely past his best, he’s showing enough interest at the start of races and today he downgrades to C3. His last start in C3 at Palmerston North was a win. Bigtime Acacia (6) and Bigtime Fred (5) both have good records over the track and distance and also feature strongly in the Predictor.
Fantastic Teddy (3) adds to the confusion – he’s been racing well in C2 but upgrades today and has his first crack at the middle distance.
Mija Syndney (1) has been racing in distance races since April so is another unknown but should have enough speed to push up on the rails from box 1 which will simply add to the favourite’s challenge.
It looks a really open race and happy to back the speed map against the favourite and look for some value elsewhere.
The speed map got things pretty right but as it turned out the favourite managed to get a pretty clear run at them and was able to just run down the leader in the shadows of the post. The black rug is doing well in the rugs challenge so fingers crossed for that one to get us back on top.
Keep in mind that with the two meetings, there are actually two rugs challenge.
In the first meeting (M3), the bookies have made boxes 1 and 2 the favourite options and they do look the best chances. The one rug that comes up in the Predictor and is at ridiculous odds is the green rug (6). It’s currently at $26 and will likely get out further but it has a few chances in the second half of the meeting. I’d only recommend a dollar or two for interest but at those prices you get plenty of interest for almost no investment and it makes for a great saver.
We didn’t get a yelp out of box 6 but if it had been a boxing match, they would have been throwing every towel but the red one into the ring. Box 1 got off to a great start and it was never really in doubt. It opened at $3.50 – it’s a good example how with this option you can find a couple to follow and come out ahead. Will be interested to see how we go in the second.
In the second meeting, the bookies say box 5 while the Predictor likes box 6 (currently $8) and box 7 (second favourite at $4.50). All are paying nice money – with just the five races, things can and do change quickly.
Box 7 won the first two races and from there it was another easy win. The $4.50 looked good money at the start of the meeting and outstanding value after the first two races had been run and won.
Back again next Monday.