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Free Ratings 6 August 2018

Posted: August 5, 2018 at 6:45 pm   /   by   /   comments (0)

Updated with recommended bets at 10.07.

Before you know it, it’s Monday and we are back at the hounds at Palmerston North.  As always, there’s free ratings on Monday.

Last week was a little bit disappointing but we did find the pink 8 to provide a bit of value in the rugs challenge.  It easily got up after opening at $12.

A reminder that we are still straddling sites and the new site has some additional accuracy (it’s a long story).  A logon is not needed at present: stage.formproratings.co.nz.

First race is 12.50 pm.  Don’t forget there’s now two meetings at Palmerston – M3 and M9.

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Bet of the Day – M3 R7 Kirkham Coby (1)

I’m always nervous going back to the well especially when Kirkham Coby did us proud last year and came in almost paying $10.

The big form factor is that Coby is in the red rug and he’s won 8 from 15 out of box 1.  His recent races he’s drawn no closer than 3 but has still made the lead in a couple of those before being run down.

These more toe in this race than a centurion of Roman soldiers so having a bit of space on the inside could be critical, especially if he can use his know speed and jump level.  Any crowding on his outside just makes it even better.

The ratings show that the field is pretty even so the advantage to the inside draw plus early box speed could well be the difference.

Outside of Coby there’s plenty of options – take your pick!  But Coby does look a good value bet based on his draw and recent form.

Almost – Coby jumped and had a lead but no excuses.  The dog that was second rated beat him across the line and the tri with the two top rated paid major overs at $350.

Rugs Challenge – Pass

We found some great value last week but it looks pretty open today, especially M3.  it is an option worth following especially if you have confidence later in the card.  The bookies have the red rug really short but the problem is finding the rug to beat the red – take your pick from 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and 7!  It will be interested to see how this one plays out.

Update after race 5 – the 1 box has delivered to the short odds it opened at.  Box 1 has a couple of good winning chances ahead so hard to see any value elsewhere even allowing for the short odds on the red rug ($1.25).

Lay of the Day – M3 R1 Trojan Horse (4)

We’ll go early with our lay of the day.  The favourite Trojan Horse may well win but at $1.55 I don’t see any value.

Yes, he did win his first race but the time wasn’t particularly outstanding and there’s a number here that have rated similar times.  Morever, he drew 1 that day and today he has box four.  On top of that, it’s his first start at Palmerston North.

Generally, I would prefer to leave C0 races unless there’s a bit of exposed form.  Given what we know, I’d be happy not to back the favourite and look for an upset in the first.  The dogs in 2 and 3 look the likely next best.

Given that we were told that there were two bets with the bookies of $5K and $4K you would have to say the bookies would have been happy with the result.  And given the ratings and the variables we highlighted, you would have to say that bookies would have been happy to take those bets too.  $1.50 was far too short for the favourite and while it was hard to find the winner, the Ratings showed clearly that the favourite was no certain thing.  Nice to get a lay when the runner was paying $1.50 but the Ratings certainly made it a lot easier.