Recommended Bets – 23 July 2018
Bet of the Day – M3 R2 – Tuna Speed (4)
Nothing fishy about today’s bet of the day. Unfortunately, the bookies have well and truly spotted this runner as well so we won’t be getting overs.
Tuna Speed has won her last two starts and due to vagaries of the nomination system, gets another crack at C1. Only one other runner has won over today’s course and distance while three times in her last 6 times she’s rated 40 or better – none of the rest of the field have broken 40 in their last 6 starts.
There’s a little flag over her box speed but she has been getting out of the traps quicker in recent starts. She should still be up on the early pace and it looks like she’ll have a bit of space on her immediate outside with the dog in 5 being a little slower.
We’re not going to make our fortune at $1.95FF but in this field in looks like a good bet.
There seems to be a magic formula … the shorter price the dog, the less likely they are to win. Tuna Speed showed none of the qualities we found so enticing and really didn’t give us a run at all. The speed map did find the winner as one of the two likely leaders but it didn’t manage to find the quaddie ticket. It also puts a bit of dent in our blue rug challenge but still 8 races to go. Hopefully better results ahead.
Value Bet of the Day – M3 Blue Rug
For something a little different, I like today’s rug challenge on M3. The blue rug (4) is currently paying $3.80 which looks great value especially with Tuna Speed our bet of the day and Bigtime Autumn my first pick in R8.
The Predictor has the blue rug on top in 5 races – we won’t win them all but if our bet of the day wins and the blue rug picks up some points in the first race then it will be tough to run down. More so, the price will decrease significantly so get on early.
If you’re patient and have done your home work, the prices can change quite dramatically and especially if you think the bookies are wrong, you can find some great value during the races.
Just remember that this bet is over the 10 races on M3 only.
Ouch! Going into the last the blue and white rugs were even and we were hanging on a noted backmarker Apricity. Unfortunately, he got well back and was never in the race. If we’d managed to pick some points with the bet of the day, it could have been a very good day. Still we got our money’s worth and at one stage the blue rug had drifted out to over $20. We still have the lay of the day to go.
Lay of the Day – M9 R2 – Djay Dynamix (8)
Over the last 6 months or so, the lay of the day has proved to be an effective way to find some value.
Djay Dynamix will be well support in R2 on the second meeting (M9) and he’s currently the bookies favourite.
However, I think there’s more than a couple of flags to consider.
He looks to lack boxspeed and while box 8 will mitigate this to an extent, as we’ve seen time and again, box speed is gold.
Whilst he has a good track record at least on paper, his ratings show that his best rating for track and distance is near enough the worst in the field.
He’s also new enough to C2 – he’s only graduated to the second tier this month and while he’s not on his own, it’s fair to say he’s appreciating the better class.
I think he’s worth throwing into the trifecta or first four mix. Bigtime Logan (3) or Bigtime Rosie (2) look like better bets on paper and are likely to have more box speed that Djay. Bigtime Joshy (4) also needs to be in the mix with the benefit of the inside alley.
Ouch II. The favourite needed every metre to get up by a nose but get up it did. The second dog was a ratings roughie but he just needed a fractionally shorter race. A clean sweep misere this week – close but no cigar. Or even a cigarette butt today!