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Free Ratings Monday 16 July 2018

Posted: July 15, 2018 at 4:14 pm   /   by   /   comments (0)

Updated with recommended bets.  Good luck!

The racing gods give – and they take away.  Especially the last leg of a monster place 6!

But I digress.  Monday 16 July we have not one, not two, but THREE meetings.

With the postponement of Auckland on Sunday, we now have racing action from Auckland and Palmerston making for a Monster Monday.  13 races from Manuakau (M2) and another 15 races from the two meetings at Palmerston North.

I’ll be back later Monday morning with my recommended bets of the day.

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Bet of the Day – M2 R 11 Cameo Syd (4)

Cameo Syd and Westworld fought out the result the last time they met.  Not much of a fight actually – Cameo Syd led for 525m and Westworld bombed him on the finish line.

Cameo Syd maps to get to the lead and has a similar draw.  We know Westworld will get back from the start and if Syd is going to win (20 bonuses points if you pick that reference up!), then Westworld needs to find some traffic problems.  The smaller field gives Westworld a boost but he only just won last start without experiencing any issues in transit. He needs the same luck today and indeed every time he runs.

I’ll be happy to take the $3 on offer for Cameo Syd and then watch to see if Westworld – or any other runner – can run him down.

Another charmed run for Westworld basically gave it to him but Cameo Syd at least gave him something to chase as predicted.  Easy money on the tris and first 4 but you’ll still have to go back to work tomorrow!

Value Bet – M3 R7 – Stole Me Car (2)

With the bumper day of racing, I’ve added a value bet of the day.

Stole Me Car is downgrading after 3 runs in C3.  His best rating over the last 6 races is 49 which is what he rated winning last time back in C2. He doesn’t have the best record from box 2 but his record from 1 and 3 is strong so no problems with the inside draw and he maps to get close to the rails in the early dash.  The only other box speed is likely to come out wide.

The favourite, Bigtime Chris, just seems to be finding it hard to find his feet (all four of them) in C2.  He’s been a little slow away as well.

Stole Me Car is good value at $5.20 – he looks more like a $3-$3.50 chance in this field.  Perhaps he ran more like a $5 shot after all but once he gave away the advantage at the start, he did well to run on for third.

Lay of the Day – M9 R3 – Bigtime Krusty (7)

One of the things that is true about racing is that it’s generally easier to find a loser than a winner!  In most dog races, you get just 12.5% chance to find the winner.  What’s worth noting is that over the last 6 months or so, the best value has usually been found by finding a dog likely to lose and betting around that scenario.  No pressure but that’s what we’ll try to do today.

Anyway, on to today’s runner.  On another day, Bigtime Krusty could well be the bet of the day.  She is without doubt the class runner in the field and on her day, one of the top echelon in the country.

However, there’s a couple of flags that would at least prevent me from having a crack at what on paper appears to be very attractive odds – $2.70 is not bad money for a runner of Krusty’s calibre.

First, she hasn’t yet run to her high standards at Palmerston North.  Sounds strange to say when she’s won 3 from 4 starts but her best rating over 457m at Manawatu is 59 which is in the lower half of the field.

Second, and perhaps the biggest concern, is that she is hit and miss from the boxes.  What concerns me is that in this race there are a number of runners who will be quick out of the boxes.  Sadeeki in box 1 is unbeaten in the red and will head forward.  Spare Some Time (3) and Bigtime Forest (6) look the likely early leaders so if Krusty does jump she might find herself four wide.

No surprises but her worst runs have come when she has missed the jump as she did on Friday.  Admittedly, that was in a higher class, but she tailed the field the whole trip.

If she gets the jump, then it will be all over red rover – her top ratings show that she is the best dog in the field.  However, the ratings also show that the bulk of her best ratings have been from kinder draws.  A win wouldn’t surprise but as she will likely come in from her current $2.60, I don’t think she’s great value today.

Another lay of the day that pretty much went to the script.  As we predicted, Krusty wasn’t the best away and to be fair she showed a lot of ticker to get up for third.  However, Bigtime Frosty got the lead and Krusty and the other backmarker Thomas William were trying to catch up.  Bigtime Frosty was third rated and also featured to lead so the $6 was great money.

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David