Updated with recommended bets at 11.30am.
Last week, the theme of the Monday post was eggs as in the Curate’s egg. Sadly, the egg theme was appropriate as I ended up with egg on my face.
It was not a great week. The bet of the day followed the well trodden path via Foxton and a placing was best we could hope for. The lay of the day benefitted from a mess at the start and where we had the fav mapped to run into problems, he conveniently missed it all and shot off for a win.
So it won’t be hard to do better this week!
We’ll be back with my selections later this morning.
user = formpro
password = speed
Bet of the Day – M9 R3 – Bigtime Sam (2)
There looks to be a bit of value around Bigtime Sam in race 2 on the extra meeting (M9).
Sam downgrades for this race and maps to get the lead. The dog on is inside is slow away as is Phantom Way in box 3 who is more of a distance dog these days. On top of that, he has the best rating for the track and distance and the best rating over the last 6 races.
It does look a race in two but at least on paper there looks to be some flags around the fav, Don’t Knocka Gee. His last start win was from box 1 and he doesn’t have the same record from the squeeze boxes. He hasn’t won in 5 attempts over 457 at Palmerston North with just a single place to show. And while he has box speed, as noted above, he maps to be second out of the boxes and more importantly outside of Bigtime Sam.
I think Don’t Knocka Gee is a little unders at $1.90 making the $3.80 on Sam a bit more appealing. I like the win for Sam and cover with a trifecta with Don’t Knock Gee for first and second with the field for third. If you want to narrow the options a little, then the best performed trifecta chances with the two favs would be Bigtime Clyde (7), Trendy Val (8) and Phantom Way (3).
A reminder too that there’s only 2 place dividends on the tote but the TAB offers top 3 for the fixed option 1903.
Lay of the Day – M3 R7 – Bigtime Mike (2)
Race 7 on the first meeting M3 looks a lot more open than the bookies have priced it.
The bookies have Mike at $2.40FF. He did lead all the way last start and gets another crack at C1. However, his times – including his last start win – have been decidedly average. He has a solid record over the 410m with 3 starts for three places. He looks to have enough pace to clear the dog in box 1 but there’s possible more pace outside.
So he does look pretty short and with a number of other runners who have claims, the exotics could be the way to go here. As I said, if you take Mike out of the picture, it does look pretty open with Goldstar Sawyer, Cawbourne Symsy, Cawbourne Lick and Fancy Fifita making up the next line of betting. The other runner who could pop up at decents odds is Cawbourne Muzza in box 2.
It won’t be a shock if Mike wins but based on the ratings it wouldn’t be a shock either if he doesn’t and at $2.40 I’ll keep my pennies for better value. I’ll look to have a trifecta with a few runners and hope that Mike misses a place to bump up the return but he’ll go into the mix as well.
The speed map was pretty much on the mark with Fancy Fifita showing up early. As expected, Goldstar Sawyer was a little slow away but made rapid progress before being checked. That was always the concern but even though Mike got all favours with the squeeze, and as the Predictor clearly showed, Mike wasn’t likely to outrun Goldstar Sawyer. So win money saved and in retrospect, the winner was great value at $4. The trifecta actually paid overs with Cawbourne Lick easily found being second rated. If only he had managed to run second! Another example of find a dog that could lose which in turn boosts dividends elsewhere.
Good luck and good punting.