Free Ratings for Monday 2 July 2018

Like the Curate’s Egg, last week was good in parts.

Our lay of the day was spot on – the favourite ran a decent fourth but the three dogs rated to beat it had clearly read the script.  The $170 trifecta paid major overs with the favourite out of the mix.  We had the first 4 in 4 as well and that paid over $700.  On the other hand, our bet of the day also ran 4th and never really looked likely.

 

So a marginally successful day but definitely room for improvement.

Ill be back late morning with the bet of the day and lay of the day.

And don’t forget, there are TWO meetings at Palmy today – M3 and M9.  The traditional 15 races are split over two meetings.

David

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Bet of the Day – M3 R10 – Americano (1)

There’s a few Aussie first starters today which make the analysis and form comparison challenging to say the least.

However, I like Americano in M3 race 10 for a bit of each way value.

The big factor to consider is the easing in class.  Four starts back, she was racing in C3/4 class so this race (C2) is easier.

She has a great record from box 1 (although last start was a blot on her red rug record).  However, she has the benefit of Apricity in box 2 so from the boxes it will be like she has a vacant dog on her outside!

Even though her results have been unimpressive, her times – especially at C2 level – have been competitive.  Three dogs stand out based on their recent racing – Americano, Cawbourne Lyns (7) and Winevara (8).  The other two have flags over the outside boxes.

The two favourites – Bigtime Ivo (6) and Polly The Dolly (5) – also have flags.  There recent form is below the three listed above although Polly is having her first start in a couple of months. Polly also downgrades for this race.  She has some box speed but there’s a reasonable possibility that Lighting Lu in box 3 might strike early and keep her three or four wide which will only help Americano’s chances.

At $4.20, I think American represents some value.

Lay of the Day – M3 R2 – Bigtime Panther (6)

On the surface, it doesn’t look like much of a selection – Bigtime Panther at $4FF is a very loose favourite at best.

However, I suspect he may come in a little closing to race time for a couple of reasons.  First, as favourite, he will pick up some of the late and lazy bets.  Second, as a “Bigtime” runner, he is naturally deserving of attention. And third, we may get videos of his recent races which as the comments state: Was sighted doing his best work later stages in both sprints last week.

As we saw last week, if we can find a race where the favourite misses out, then we have a much better chance of getting overs on trifectas and first fours in particular.

First – the case against Bigtime Panther.  The problem with him doing his best work late is that it directly relates to how slow he is out of the boxes.  A dog flashing home late always attracts attention yet as we have seen race after race, box speed wins races.  His three wins have been from the three inside boxes so the green rug isn’t great.  He actually rates last based on last 6 race times.   And he maps to be last out of the boxes.

Based on form over the last 6 races, four dogs look likely – Blue Precision (5), Cawbourne Lick (8), Go Ring (2), and Flying Dewy (3).  The later rates well on a number of metrics and could be one to spice things up nicely.  Cawbourne Lick has won for us before but he has shown nothing from box 8.

I’ve also left out Cawbourne Merl in box 1 although the better draw should help.  However, he is another dog who is slow away and his latest form has been underwhelming to say the least.

I wouldn’t go crazy on this race but if either or both Bigtime Panther and Cawbourne Merl miss a placing, the exotics could pay a nice bit of overs.

NOTE: After this was written, Blue Precision was trimmed by the bookies to joint favouritism.

WOW, the curate’s eggs were well and truly scrambled today! I don’t think anyone saw the Panther leading out but once the dogs mapped to lead the race missed the start, the race was turned on its head.  And there’s enough egg left for a fair bit of it to be on my face too!  Hopefully the bet of the day can prevent us from being completely poached!

David