Free Ratings for Monday 25 June 2018

Updated with bet of the day and lay of the day, both M9.

It’s Monday already – funny, some weeks every day seems like a Monday!

That said, there’s always a special treat on Mondays with free ratings in association with the Palmerston North greyhounds.

We were back in form last week too – our bet of the day never looked like giving us a worry and paid over $4 on final field.  We’ll be trying to do the same again this week.

Ill be back late morning with the bet of the day and lay of the day.

And don’t forget, there are TWO meetings at Palmy today – M3 and M9.  The traditional 15 races are split over two meetings.

David

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Bet of the Day – M9 Race 3 – Bigtime Sam (1)

The bookies have Bigtime Sam at a very nice each way price.

He rates strongly across all the metrics and has the advantage of the box 1 draw.  That said, as he record shows, box 1 isn’t his favourite box – he has a much better record in box 2.  He tends to move away from the rail.  Where the draw will help today is that Apricity is so slow out of the boxes, Sam will effectively get to race in clear air when the lids go up.

Sam is at overs because Bigtime Tyson (3) and Don’t Knocka Gee (8) are starting.  Bigtime Tyson is one of those dogs whose form looks good on paper and he always seems to be thereabouts.  However, the ratings clearly show his best rating over his last 6 starts is a very average 29 – the worst in the field! Two dogs – Sam and Don’t Knocka Gee – have a best last 6 rating of better than 50.

On the other hand, Don’t Knocka Gee does have the times on the board although his best times have been at Hatrick, not Palmerston North. Sam has the best rating for the course and distance and two starts  back rated over 50 winning from box 2.  And in 5 starts from the outside two boxes, Don’t Knocka Gee has yet to win.

The two favourites are paying under $3 to win while Sam is currently paying $6.20 and $1.85 place.  If the money comes from the favourites, we’d almost be getting the same money for Sam to run a place than the favourites to win.

I think Sam is excellent each way value and would also look to play the exotics around Sam.  With the possibility one or either of the favourites could miss a place, the exotics could pay overs.

Looking for the positives here, the exotics did prove to be the way to go but with Sam running fourth, no trifecta.  He jumped well enough but didn’t show much sizzle.  That said, compared to the favourites, he shone!  Would have been nice to see Sam get up for third, but that’s racing.  Back again next week.

Lay of the Day – M9 Race 1 – Rumors (6)

I’d be happy to bet against Rumors in Race 1 of today’s second meeting.

On the up side, she is a last start winner and goes around again in C1 class.

However, there are a few downsides.  She’s only won from the inside or outside traps so box 6 could be a challenge.

Her box speed is a question too especially from the outside boxes.  Bigtime Acacia in box 7 is likely to turn hard left out of the boxes which could spell doom for both runners.

On top of all that, there are a number of runners with better Last 6 ratings than Rumors.  Her best rating over her last 6 starts is 39 – three runners have bested that (Toki Girl 4, Bigtime Acacia 7 and Gray Bale 8) and all three have a best rating of 50 or better.

The start will likely be the key.  If Bigtime Acacia can get a clean getaway, she looks the likely leader.  If she doesn’t, then she will more than likely tangle with Rumors and it could give a backmarker like Gray Bale the perfect opening.

Either way, Rumors is too short for me at $2.20.

It’s not often a preview goes pretty much to script but the preview pretty much summed the race.  I thought Gray Bale was going to threaten but as it turned out the trifecta was easily found by the three dogs who had the clear top ratings over the last 6 starts.  The predictor even bundled up the first four in four selections – nice money at $740.