Free Ratings for Monday 18 June 2018

Updated at 10am.  Recommended bet and lay below.  Also, if you are trying to use the Formpro free account, the issue has been fixed.  Apologies.

It’s Monday and after a couple of disjointed weeks, we should be back to normal this week.

We’ll keep it simple and you can log on to this site using the login details below.  If everything goes to plan over the next week, we should be live with the new site next week.

I’ll be back later this (Monday) morning with the recommended bets and a lay of the day if I can find one.  A reminder also that there are TWO meetings for Palmerston North these days – the 15 races are split across two TAB codes.

Back again later this (Monday) morning.

David

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Bet of the Day – M9 R2 – Bigtime Kate (3)

There’s some open competitive races so I won’t be going mad today.

One dog I think is currently providing good value is Bigtime Kate.  Here form is not particularly inspiring but she has recently downgraded- four starts back she was running in a C3/4 race here at Palmerston North.

She’s lightly raced having just been to the races 18 times so still learning the game.  She’s already run and won in C2 class so we know she has the ability at this level.

The other factor that plays to her advantage is that there doesn’t appear to be a lot of box speed.  She maps to be on the pace and the only real competition is the favourite Cawbourne Ridge out in box 6.  He’s just returned to C2 class and has just 1 win from 11 starts in box 6.

One runner I’d be putting into exotics is Goldstar Sawyer.  He hasn’t yet won from box 8 but the lack of box speed in the race could help him out here.  Based on his recent times, he’s one of the form runners in the race and could boost tris and first fours.

At $4.20FF, I think Bigtime Kate is great each way value.

That’s exactly how you would like your favourite to win – clearly jumped and no one got near.  Great money too.  And as noted in the analysi, Goldstar Sawyer paid great money for second

Lay of the Day – M9 R3 – Bigtime Tyson (4)

As I mentioned above, some very open races – in this race, Tyson is a loose favourite currently paying around $3FF.

He is a last start winner although the time was pretty average.  OK, it was actually significantly worse than average but you get my point!  He also has box speed compared to the bulk of the field so is not a hopeless case by any means.

The ratings factor I pay close attention to when assessing the main chances in the field is the “Best” rating which is each dog’s best rating over their last 6 races.  Tyson rates 24 (which was his last start win) and to all intents it is the equal bottom – Fancy Fifita rates 23 and Trendy Mind (1) rates 24 as well.

At the other end of the spectrum, Bigtime Acacia has rated 46 across her last six starts while Toki Girl (5) and Bigtime Joshy (6) have both rated above 50.

What makes it even more interesting is that neither of the two favourites – Bigtime Acacia and Bigtime Tyson – have yet won at Palmerston North over today’s distance.

Of the two, I would rate Bigtime Acacia the better chance.  She’s got slight edge on box speed, is drawn inside Tyson and has a clear advantage in terms of her last 6 races.

I’d be happy to back against Tyson but he’s still worth putting into trifectas and first fours.

With the run he got, you would have expected Tyson to win but as we noted, his recent form hasn’t been the best and one of those with a a better “Best” rating took the chocolates.  A good example of how the ratings can find dogs that are under value.

David

 

2018-06-17T18:35:23+00:00