Free ratings 28 May

Last week we were given a short sharp reminder of the fine lines in racing.

Our bet of the day just missed and our lay of the day just won.

So, this week, we’ll be looking to reverse that and get back in the winner’s circle.

Back later this morning with our recommended bets.

 

David

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Back again later this morning with the bets of the day.  In the meantime, if you are new to the site or to the Ratings, check out the video below.

David

Bet of the Day – Race 10 – Thomas William (2)

I’m happy to take the shorts on Thomas William in race 10.

He found C3 class a lot tougher last start from a squeeze box.  However, today, he’s back to an inside draw (2) and faces a pretty weak C3 class – just two of the field were running in C3 last time round.

His two recent wins both rated in the 60s and that alone puts him on top.  He will need to navigate the start but there doesn’t look to be a lot of early pace so with any decent luck he should be in the mix at the end of the back straight and from there he should be too good for this lot.  Only one runner (Cawbourne Assist in box 1) has run better than 50 in their last 6 starts.

Cawbourne Assist is the logical next best although interestingly this is his first crack in the red.  The inside boxes look like they have this race covered with Eye Know in box 3 looking like providing some value in the exotics.

However, it does look like Thomas William’s race to lose.  Lids are up at 2.42.

Once he missed the jump, he made life very tough for himself.  He did well to be up on the outside of the leader but the effort told and in the end he did well to hang on to third.  As the ratings showed, the second best option was the main danger and once he got to the lead, it was going to be difficult to peg back.

Lay of the Day – Race 11 – Bigtime Levi (8)

As always, it’s worth reminding ourselves of the value of this activity – finding a dog that is under the odds.

I think Levi is one of the winning chances but it looks an open race – 5 dogs (including Levi) have rated 70 or better in their last six starts.  And then we the Aussie import Party Every Day who still has to decide whether that includes Mondays in Palmerston North.

Levi has been racing in good classes and has been duelling with dogs of the class of Bigtime Paddy.  For me the key is the TAB form comment:

He’s racing in solid current form. Provided with swooping claims here.

He does have a great record from out wide but the speed map suggests that he maps to be fourth or fifth out of the boxes.  And on top of that, all the dogs with early speed are the runners who have claims based on their ratings.

It looks a good race to watch.  Levi could win but at $2.80 and a swooping run, you would need to work for your money.

The speed map was bang on the mark with the early speed coming from the inside which made it very difficult for Levi to cross.  As it turned out, the Predictor had 3 dogs marginally ahead of Levi and two of those filled the first two positions.  If you did back Levi, you didn’t get much of a run for your money which was what we thought might happen.

Another dog that is too short for me is Rumors in race 8.  In four starts in NZ she hasn’t really clicked yet.  However, as she looks the likely leader and it’s hard to find a dog with better claims, she has to have winning claims but not for me at $1.60.  Another good race to watch.

Yet again, the Ratings tell the story – Rumors was never a $1.60 chance and the Predictor had five dogs in with a show.  The trifecta was easily found from those five and you could have potentially got the tri in 4.  With the short favourite making just third, the winner and trifecta all paid nice overs.