Free ratings 21 May and dog help video

Let’s hope that lightning can strike twice but it would be magic if we could repeat yesterday’s effort.

From 13 races at Manukau, the dog mapped to lead out on our speed maps won 9 of the 13 races for a straight return of $44.50!  On top of that the $1300 quaddie was pretty straightforward with the predictor having 2 winners on top and a third winner second rated.  The other race was easily found in the market.

So we’ve put ourselves under a little pressure and the recent run of results on Monday’s just add to the heat.  But a little heat in winter goes a LONG way!

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Back again later this morning with the bets of the day.  In the meantime, if you are new to the site or to the Ratings, check out the video below.

David

Bet of the day – race 11 – Bigtime Tears (4)

Bigtime Tears has been racing in much tougher class than this and performing well – she won a heat of the Futurity, came third in the final behind Cawbourne Krusty and her last start win took her into the open ranks (C5).  Today, she’s running out noms up against a field of C4 runners.

She’s drawn well enough and the way the draw has played out, according to the speed map, she has a decent crack of getting to the lead.  While her recent racing has been down the road in Whanganui, she has won two from four over the track and distance.

So long as the recent racing hasn’t knocked the edge off her – and her win on Friday night says no – she looks a good bet.

Bigtime Wendle is the obvious threat and has early toe while Arden Emgrand has only recently escaped C5.  Caveman Sam is another runner who performs well at Manawatu.

At her best, she should be winning this.

There goes another multi.  It looked all over when she kicked but all kudos to the winner who was simply too strong.  Back again after our lay of the day in race 14.

Another dog who should be winning in Bigtime Shine in R3 but she’s paying around $1.60. The easiest $1.60 you would have made in punting – if you could have got that price!  I wonder how many multis are running through this result?

Value bet of the day – race 6 – Benny Burrito (4)

Benny showed his jets when we labelled him a couple of starts back and he has been running times that shows he’s headed for the open classes.

It is a very competitive C3/4 which is why I didn’t make Benny my bet of the day.  Bigtime Narelle in box 8 is the favourite and one of those dogs who has the ability to just win regardless of the time.  That said, most of the field have a better best rating from their last 6 starts and Benny, Bigtime Ottey and Cawbourne Mezza all have significantly better times over the 375m.

Benny is always susceptible at the start as he takes a couple of strides to get into his work but the slowest dog in the field out of the boxes – Opawa Lyon – is in box 3.

At $3.90, I think he’s good each way value and you could also look for some value in the exotics working around Benny, Bigtime Ottey and Cawbourne Mezza.

Benny got away ok but if anything was beaten by the draw.  He couldn’t get to the rails and ran into some traffic problems beaten by two dogs drawn inside.  The second favourite Bigtime Narelle never featured which is what the ratings predicted.  Certainly not a bad run by Benny and definitely worth a look next start – one of our bets of the week from last week, Bigtime Lily went one better today.  

Lay of the day – race 14 – Bigtime Winter

On paper, Bigtime Winter looks a good thing in R14.  Her last start win rated an impressive 66 which will win plenty of C1 races and she gets a bonus outing in C1 today.  So – again, on paper, there’s plenty in her favour.

I think there’s a couple of major flags that means she will likely be unders.

First, her three best runs have all come from box 2 – her ratings in the outside boxes have been nowhere near as dominant (at least in C1 class).

Second, in 4 starts at Manawatu she has yet to win and has just one placing. At the end of April, she was second into the strait but simple fainted in the home straight and ended last.

The one saving grace is if Winter isnt winning, then it looks a reasonably open race.

Cawbourne Lyns rates highly but has an awful record from box 1 with three placings from 9 starts.  Bigtime Hunter, like her kennelmate, doesn’t have the same form from out wide but has the second best rating over the last 6 starts.

Cawbourne Lick is a Monday favourite and is always going to be going strong at the end.  While he doesn’t have the greatest form on paper (lots of paper used today!), he does have the two best times on the course and distance over the last month. The other dog that shows up in the filter for course and distance is Cawbourne Hint.

I’ll be looking to play the exotics (trifecta, first 4) on this race and hope to get some value from Bigtime Winter either placing or missing out entirely.

I think we saw that one coming – a day of close but no cigar all day.  The speed map was on the mark and while it was close, Winter fell in.  Conversely, the Cawbourne dogs were a bit disappointing.

Close but not close enough.  Back again next week to see if we can get some back.

 

David

 

 

Lay of the day

Bet details to follow.

 

2018-05-20T18:46:14+00:00