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We were well and truly back on track at Palmerston North last week with a low drama clean sweep. If only every day was like that!
Our bet of the day won exactly like a $2 shot should do while our value bet of the day made for a tasty multi. The lay of the day was never a chance so three out of three.
That puts the pressure back on to back up so back here back around 11.30 with my selections.
user = formpro
password = speed
Bet of the day
Two dogs look pretty good chances today.
Race 11 – Bigtime Lily (3)
Bigtime Lily has been a favourite of this column and we were following her back in C1 races,
She ran an outstanding 4th in the Group 1 Futurity on Friday night. So on class alone she should have this. She has a good record from the inside boxes and with the one dog being scratched, she effectively comes into box 2. There’s pace on the inside so the two inside dogs should on the early pace with Lily having the burn over the final stages.
The one concern is the second favourite Ask King Jeff (4). He’s having just his second start in New Zealand and his first at the mighty Manawatu. You would have to take on trust but the bookies certainly rate.
It does make it difficult to compare form but based on her last start, Lily is the logical bet.
Almost. Got away well, lost a bit of momentum, got a bit of a check but deservedly beaten on the day by the runner rated second. The trifecta was a little bit of solace but still a tad disappointing.
Race 13 – Bigtime Shine (6)
Bigtime Shine brought a lot of attention to herself with a storming win in C0 but the clock broke. So we needed to take the sectionals and times for the race and it simply showed what a performance it was.
Her times were competitive with higher class races and it’s been no surprise that she’s won a couple of C1 races in a row.
With Clover Colin in box 7 one box outside Bigtime Shine, it most likely inflates Bigtime Shine’s price a little.
Clover Colin is a good dog but head to head, Shine has already done more. She looks to have a little more pace to the first turn, although like many is a risk for the first couple of strides. Bigtime Shine also has the best rating for track and distance and over the last 6 starts. Both rated around 50 in their last starts.
The two look like the likely main players in exotics although Cawbourne Bee in box 2 could surprise especially as she looks like getting first look at the rails.
As Roso said, the $2 on offer for Bigtime Shine was pretty decent given her form and times. It was a very easy way to get our money back and the multi just missed which would have put the icing on the cake.
Lay of the day – Race 6 – Daisy Lara (6)
Daisy Lara has been one of the top CD sprinters for some time. However, the last month or two she’s been bouncing around C3 to C5 races.
The telling statistic is her best rating in her last 6 starts – her best was her last start win when she rated 52. Four of the other starters have rated better with two rating above 70 for their best. Add to that her underwhelming performance from box six with just 1 win from 8 starts and I think she is definitely beatable. She will still win more races but this looks a very competitive C3/4 combined race.
The three dogs rated ahead of her are Three Amigos (1), Hypocritical (3) and Bigtime Ottey (7). You would think the winner will come from one of those and there’s some decent value to be found too. The other runner who could spice up trifectas is Opawa Lyon. I’d be happy to play the five dogs in a trifecta and if Daisy misses out a place, hopefully get some overs with the tri.
Daisy actually jumped first but she wasn’t able to cross them. The winner was one of the three we labelled and Opawa Lyon did indeed spice up the trifecta ($114). Throw in the $500 first 4 and not a bad way to start the day. To be fair to Daisy it wasn’t a bad run but at her peak she wouldn’t haven’t given them a look.
Back again next Monday.