After a busy week last Monday with thirty races across two meetings, we are back to the standalone Palmerston North meeting.
First race is at 12.25 – with the change after the end of daylight savings plus the slow march towards winter, the races are starting earlier. That means I will be busy in the morning trying to find the value for the bet of the day and the runner who provides the least value – our patented lay of the day. We were two from two last week so want to keep up the good results.
Back around 11.30 with my selections.
user = formpro
password = speed
Bet of the day – Race 4 – Benny Burrito (3)
Benny showed his jets last start, scorching around Manawatu Raceway rating 80. Anywhere near that and he should repeat the dose. He’s having only his 10th start in NZ and three times already he’s run 60 or better. So not only has he run a top time, he’s been able to do some consistently.
The draw should help too. He’s not the fastest away and will take a few strides before he turns on the turbo but it’s that second stage power boost that puts him in charge. The dog on his inside is typically slow away which will help. Stole Me Car in 4 has box speed but runs straight so even if he is a little slow away he should see enough free air in front of him. Stole Me Car does look like the second best in this race and has the box speed to benefit if Benny does mess up the start.
Benny is fairly priced at $2FF.
Benny and his jets actually made a better beginning than we expected and from there it was pretty much one way traffic. The $2 was more than fair as it turned out and gave us no dramas whatsoever. The only real question was the minors and Stole Me Car hung on for third.
Value Bet of the day – Race 15 – Don’t Muzzle Me (8)
The last race has often provided us with a good result and once again the last race looks like it could deliver the goods.
Don’t Muzzle Me appeals on a number of form factors. She has the best rating for her last start plus the best rating over the last 6 starts. Six months ago she was running around in C4 races so she certainly has the class.
While some dogs don’t appreciate the wider draws, she has a good record from out wide and her best rating over the last 6 races was in fact at Palmerston North from box 8. That run would be good enough to win most C1 races. She doesn’t head hard left and even if she is slow away – as she has been in recent starts – the wide draw will actually help her find her feet and get into the race.
The two dogs who are likely to lead are Just Like Ma (1) and Bigtime Autumn (5). Both map to be on the pace but so long as Don’t Muzzle Me can get a clean start, she should have the power to swoop over the top.
Once Don’t Muzzle me got away in the first three, a few subscribers starting getting more than a little interested! In the end, it was a remarkably low stress way to finish the day and Don’t Muzzle Me won with plenty in hand paying great money at $5 on the tote. The trifecta paid unbelievable money too which made for a very profitable day.
Lay of the day – Race 6 – Cawbourne Symsy (1)
Cawbourne Sysmy will win more races but today’s is not likely to be one of those.
I’m always at least a little open minded by box starts – that is at least until there is a decent bank of data. He’s had 15 starts from boxes 1 and 2 with no wins and just 3 places. That strongly suggests he does not like the inside draw which is ironic as I suspect that may be one of the reasons he’s ended up as favourite in a very open race.
While he shouldn’t be the slowest out, the speed map shows he’s very likely to get crossed – he has only been second or better at the first marker once in his last 8 starts. No surprises, he hasn’t won any of those races.
On top of that, he’s racing dogs that have largely run better performances in recent racing. His best rating over the last 6 starts is 36 – only better than Making It Up on 35. Tazia, Doosh, Kinetic Shadow, and El Hefe all have run 50 or better.
It’s an extremely open race in my opinion. For the last leg of the treble, I’d be tempted to make this a field job especially as the first two legs look a lot easier to predict. Cawbourne Symsy is far too short at $3.20. I’d be casting my net wider and looking at Tazia, Doosh, Kinetic Shadow, or El Hefe.
The other option of course after looking at the ratings is to decide this is a no bet race and save your money for races where we have greater confidence.
The perfect race for the Formpro Ratings. The speed maps showed that Bigtime Spark would be on the pace and that played out. We were concerned about the inside record of the favourite. And now we know why! And on top of all that the top rated runner in the Predictor took the honours. 2 out of 2 with just our value bet to follow.
A great day for the ratings and hopefully a few visitors got some too.
Back again next Monday.