Free ratings – Monday 30 April 2018

After a busy week with two group one races for the greyhounds, it’s back to routine with 15 races at Palmerston North.

But we have the tonic to give you the perfect pick me up – free ratings.

And after a couple of weeks where my best bet has performed with all the consistency of the Warriors, I’ll be taking plenty of tonic to see if I can up my game.  We don’t want to end up like the Blues super rugby team!

Fifteen races at Manawatu with the first at 12.40 backed up by a fifteen race card at Addington with the first there off at 2.15.  I’ll be back around 11.30 with my recommended bets for the day.

Good punting

 

David

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Bet of the day – Addington Race 2 – Torpedo Tuck (1)

We’re off to Addington for the bet of the day.  We consistently repeat the mantra that in greyhound racing, getting on the lure is the key to winning and that is especially so at Addington.  Our stats also show there is a healthy bias in favour of box one over the 295m with nearly 18% of winners in the red rug.

Torpedo Tuck’s form looks a little hit and miss – two wins bookend a run of outs.  But the outs were all from boxes 5 or wider while the two wins were from box 1.  His last win was his best performance and only one runner has run a better time.  He maps to be at worst second or third out and critically should be able to hold the rails.  He’s run competitive times when he hasn’t been winning (twice rating over 50) and he stays in C1 class after his last start win.

The $2.50 on offer looks good value.

The $2.50 now looks extremely good!  Jumped run and ran and the only question was second – at that was the dog rated second.  Trifecta paid extreme overs with the top two rated runners making it a 1-2.  That’s the way we like to see our bet of the day run.

Lay of the day – Palmerston North Race 10 – Don’t Knocka Gee (8)

Once again, let’s remind ourselves why we there’s any value in finding favourites we think can lose given that you can’t lay dogs on the NZ TAB.

If there’s reasons why we think that a dog is paying less than it should do, then it stands to reason that there will be dogs that are paying more than they should do.

In race 10, Don’t Knocka Gee is currently paying $3.10FF.  She’s been in much better form at Hatrick but at Palmerston North, she’s zip from 3 over the distance.  She hasn’t started from box 8 but in three starts from box 7, she’s just 1 for 3.  The other negative is that she has only just graduated to C2 class.

Bigtime Mike in box 3 ticks a few boxes – he’s got a pretty good record at Palmerston North, has a handy box draw and maps to lead out.  With the only other pace likely to come from the inside runner, he should find himself on the pace and that makes him hard to run down.

The other run I like is Bigtime Redo.  He’s not the best away and doesn’t have a great record from box 5 but interestingly, his best records are from boxes 4 and 6.  What appeals is that last we he did jump and run from box 5 and his opening sectional was one of the top 5 on the day.

It looks a pretty open race but with a couple of good chances, I’d look to play trifectas around the three runners above – if the favourite misses a place, then we can likely get a bonus.

A better effort from Don’t Kocka Gee but as we predicted, she was never a winning chance.  Bigtime Mike disappointed – didn’t jump and was never in it.  Bigtime Redo did jump and looked to be well positioned but seemed to get some time of knock (excuse the pun) and switched off.  

Anyway, two for two today which is what counts!  Back again next week.