Free ratings – Monday 23 April 2018

Before you know it, it’s Monday again and we’re back at Palmerston North with free ratings for all races.

I’ll be back around 12.30 with my bet of the day and to be fair the last week or two I’ve been up and down like the Warriors of old.  I’m going to try and take their lead and be a consistent winner!

Good punting

 

David

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Bet of the day – Race 5 – Cawbourne Mezza (3)

The C5 races are often the hardest to pick – to get to C5, all the runners must have serious ability and clearly will have potential to win more.  So luck is a part, as is box draw, and how the field stacks up.

Cawbourne Mezza has been a dog that has been running great closing sectionals over recent weeks.  In fact two weeks back, she ran the best closing sectional over 375m at Palmerston North.

The improved box draw I think will be significant.  In her last 10 starts, she hasn’t draw inside 3 and only twice inside 5.  Her best form has been from the two inside boxes and the two outside boxes – with no runner in box 2 today, it will feel like a box 2 draw.

The other factor that should help today is the speed map.  She doesn’t have blistering speed out of the boxes and generally has been one of the dogs powering home.  Today’s race doesn’t appear to have a lot of early pace and what speed there is is on the outside with Nicey Spicey (5) and Mila Mila (7).  Cawbourne Mezza actually maps to be third out and with Bigtime Blackie likely to be a little slow out from box 1, she looks like having a decent crack at the rails.

With a decent start from the improved box draw and the vacant box on her inside, she looks good value at $4.20 FF.  Keep in mind that the place money on the tote will pay out on the first two only so in that context the $1.55 place money for Top 3 looks great money for multis.

She jumped well but the surprise was to see Blackie up on the pace.  Things got a little tight and Mezza ended up the meat in the sandwhich or platter.  Once Blackie jumped so well, the nature of the race changed.  Still, the run was a little disappointing especially as she appeared to have the opportunity to run on in the home straight.  Back again after race 7.  The speed maps had been on fire earlier in the day including a $11 winner who was also top rated.

Lay of the day – Race 7 – Clover Colin (4)

On paper, Clover Colin looks a fair favourite – he’s won three of his last 5 starts and you throw in second for good measure as well.  And he’s been running reasonable times as well.

I think this will be the opposite of the outcome for our bet of the day who is benefitting from a significantly improved draw.  If you did a little deeper, you will soon see that Colin’s great run of form co-incided with a great run of draws – the three wins and a second were from 4 consecutive box 1 draws.  Today’s he out of box 4 – and he has just one placing from boxes 4 and 5 in 4 attempts.  You get the feeling he prefers to not be crowded and runs his best when he’s got a clear view of the lure.

I suspect also that his box speed rating is a little overstated too – in no small measure, it’s likely to have been boosted by the recent inside draws.  In his first start in C2, he was actually last out of the boxes but did make ground by the first bend.

The same logic applies to his times – his best times have been from box 1.  The only exception was his first win in C0 and it’s a lot easier to get uninterrupted passages in C0 than higher up the grades.

Given the flags we’ve listed, I just couldn’t back him at $2.40 and as we often see, dogs with good paper form who are short on the tote seem to attract attention.  That hopefully creates extra value if the favourite gets beaten.

Mitsuta (2) in up in class but rates on top.  Five starts back he was in C3 so found the C1 class a lot easier last start.  He’s one of 5 dogs who run a better time over the 375m at Palmerston North than Clover Colin.  Mitsuta also has the best rating over the last 6 starts too.  He’s another who is experiencing a significant improvement in box draw and he’s never been out of the dosh from box 2.

The likely pace should come from boxes 6,7 and 8 and all three runners have claims.  Kings Call (6) is the bookies’ second favourite and appreciates the wider draws.  He’s not going to head left so in a way that helps Clover Colin but it also means Mitsuta may get a shot at the rails as well.  Cawbourne Web (8) has come straight back to C2 after a visit to C3 but he doesn’t mind the outside boxes and won from box 7 in his last run in C2.  With all the pressure on the outside boxes, it also brings into contention box 1 with Dyna Hadvar yet another dog receiving a much improved draw.

The way the runners are boxed could certainly help Clover Colin but unless he gets a perfect start, I think he’s too much of a risk at $2.40.  I think he’s worth including in trifectas and first 4’s but include some of the value runners to get a little bit of extras.

Great finish although I had a particular interest in dog 2.  Still, I think the analysis showed why Clover Colin wasn’t the best bet especially at his opening odds and this time, he drifted in the market perhaps after Roso’s comments.  The trifecta of $142 was pretty easy to find and you didn’t need to go any wider to find the first four either.   

Back again next week and we’ll try and go one better.