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Free ratings – Monday 16 April 2018

Posted: April 16, 2018 at 9:25 am   /   by   /   comments (0)

Not many things are certain in life:

  • death and taxes, according to Benjamin Franklin
  • the Warriors losing just when everyone expects them to win
  • free Formpro Ratings on a Monday!

We were back in form last week with the bet of the day winning and our lay of the day doing the decent thing as well.  I’ll be back around 12.30 with the this week’s analysis.

David

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Bet of the day – Race 15 – Bigtime Steve (4)

There’s a couple of races where I think we can go narrow today.

Race 6 looks like a two dog race while the last race would seem to be there for Bigtime Steve.

Race 15

I made Bigtime Steve lay of the day a few weeks back and she objected to the slur and won well.  To show that there were no hard feelings, I made her bet of the day next start and she won again.

The one risk with Steve is that she is not the fastest away.  She seems to be one of those dogs that if she can get away and get a sight of the lure, it’s all on like donkey kong but if not, you can quickly move on to the next race.  She has been pretty inconsistent the last few starts although showed some better form last up at Hatrick.

Two things swing this race in her favour.  First, while she’s in box 4, the two dogs on her inside are notoriously slow so there’s a pretty decent chance she will get a good look at the lure.  Second, anywhere near her best should be far too good for this field – she rated 69 seven starts ago which none of the field has got close to.  Steve has run 3 of the top 5 times over the last 30 days which shows her class in this field.

The second favourite, Roketto (1) is a consistent placegetter over the 375m at Palmerston North but hasn’t won there in 20 attempts.  Likewise, she’s yet to break her duck from box 1 after 6 races.

You can write the story of the third favourite Apricity too.  As the sun comes up every morning, Apricity will get back and will likely then storm home.  In four of his last five starts, Apricity has been 7th or 8th out the boxes and it’s almost impossible to win from there.

Mark Be Good has run some reasonable times in recent weeks but not at Palmerston North.

So long as she doesn’t bomb the start, Bigtime Steve should be too good for them.

That really summed up the day.  Some good results for the ratings but not exactly to the script we wanted.  We found the first four but Bigtime Steve did bomb the start and never really looked likely.  Apricity did finally storm home and win one while the other two placegetters were also highlighted in the ratings.  But it’s been a pretty tough day so happy to come out about even.

Race 6

The bookies would seem to have it right that it’s a two dog race with Bigtime Autumn the favourite over our old mate Cawbourne Lick from the one.  Bigtime Autumn would appear to have the clear advantage and should lead and then it’s a case of whether Cawbourne Lick can run her done.

The one flag with the favourite is the draw.  Bigtime Autumn has only had one start from outside of box 4.  However, if she is beaten today, the dog most likely to beat here will be Cawbourne Lick so you should be able to confidently work around these two runners.

Jumped ran and won easily.  Cawbourne Lick was no where to be seen – perhaps the inside is off?  Still an easy win in the end and once she had jumped it was all over red rover.

Lay of the day – R2 – Cawbourne Symsy (2)

The bookies have Cawbourne Symsy a loose favourite but I think there’s a couple of better chances in the race, and one particularly good one.

Sysmsy has been running consistent races, particularly since he’s been back in C3.  However, while he’s jumped well the last few races, he is inconsistent from the jump.  He has a shocking record from the two inside boxes without a single win from 12 starts.  He’s in the bottom three for the best track and distance rating and five runners have better top ratings over the last 6 starts.  So not the type of stats you want to see in a favourite.

I think the best bet in the race is Kirkham Coby.  He won well for us last year and paid a whopping $9 – we won’t be getting that today.  The big factor in his favour is the box draw – he’s back in his favoured inside alley. He’s won 8 from 15 from box 1 and maps to lead.  He’s also in the top 2 or 3 from track and distance and for best ratings over the last 6 starts.  I think he’s overs at $3.70.

The other two dogs who rate well are also paying good money Bigtime Kylie (4) and Bigtime Onfire (8).  Kylie looks likely to be on pace with Kirkham Coby and the two of them might make it tough for the favourite to find a way through.  Bigtime Onfire won’t mind the outside draw either.

I like Kirkham Coby to win and I’d also look at a trifecta or first 4 working around Kirkham Coby, Bigtime Kylie, and Bigtime Onfire to return some value.

The good news is that the favourite never looked like featuring as we predicted.  OK, it did get fourth but the TAB won’t be too concerned about that.  The bad news is that the race panned out like we were living on in an alternative universe.  Hard to take the points when our pick failed to fire but we will take the points and hope our bet of the day makes it two from two.