Free ratings – Monday 9 April 2018

What could be better than free ratings on a Monday?  Two times the ratings.

As always, we have free ratings for the Palmerston North greys.  But today, Addington joins in the fun so we have ratings, speed maps, and the good old predictor for thirty races today.  It will be a busy day.

At the same time, after a pretty poor week last week, I’ll be hard out doing my homework and will be back with an update around 11.30 with my bet of the day and lay of the day.

First race at Addington is at 12.08 with the first from Palmerston North not until an hour later.

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Bet of the day – Palmerston North Race 8 – Cawbourne Assist (3)

We’re going with the favourite here in Cawbourne Assist out of box 3.

And the box draw should be the key to this race – in six starts, he’s never once drawn inside box 4.  His best performance when he lead all the way was from box 4 and the two dogs drawn inside him are expected to be slow away.  Last start, he was slow away from box 7 made quick progress but seemed to get run on from behind turning for home.  He still managed a decent closing sectional for third.

The obvious danger is Thrilling Rory in box 4 who has been running consistent races over the last month or two.  He does have a shocking record from the squeeze boxes though – seven starts for just one placing.

Barge Bale (5) is a dog with talent but is very much hit of miss.  Both runs over 457 have been underwhelming but ran a great time for lower class dogs over 375m.

Gunnar Blueblood (1) could be one to spice up exotics.  He’s another know slow starter but it’s been so long since he’s drawn an inside marble that I wouldn’t be surprised to see him carrying a map around at the start.

No dramas with the bet of the day.  Shortened during the day so no one will have got rich on the $1.90 but earlier in the day was paying $2.30 which was particularly good value as it turned out.  The trifecta with Gunnar Blueblood was pretty nice given the two favourites were 1-2.

Lay of the day – Palmerston North Race 8 – Cawbourne Zulu (7)

Unless the bookies know something the rest of us don’t, Cawbourne Zulu (7) looks too short to me in race 7 at Manawatu.

She’s lightly raced having just her seventh start in all.  The big issue for me is that in her four NZ starts, only once has she been in the top four out of the boxes.  And as we say every week, box speed is gold.  She’s also up in class which is often another flag and while she led all the way in her win here two starts back, the time wasn’t overly impressive.  In fact, every runner has run better times course and distance although that’s not a true comparison given many of the others have had plenty of chances.

On the basis of her exposed form, I’d rate her between $3-$4 so the $2.10 wouldn’t tempt me.

To be fair, while Cawbourne Zulu hasn’t shown a lot of consistent early pace, there’s not a lot out out and out speedsters in this race.  One who could benefit from this is Mister Ebby (5) is who generally slow away.  However, last week he came home in one of the best closing sectionals on the day.  He’s recently downgraded from C2 as well and this looks considerably easier than last week.

The likely leader looks to be Bigtime Rosie in box 4.  She’s not the strongest at the business end up if she can lead then they have to run her down.

All Black Star (6) may not be a world cup winner but he’s been running decent times in C0 and his winning time over 457m was almost 4 lengths better than the Cawboure Zulu’s.

The second favourite is Opawa Mine (3) is another who is often slow away but this time may not be as slow as some of the others!  Has placed in 2 from 3 starts over 457m and has slower dogs drawn inside.

Assuming that Cawbourne Zulu is unders, it does create a market where if the favourite gets beaten and you can find the winner, you should get overs.

Back in form and after last week’s effort, it was much needed. As we noted, the speed map was challenging given some many of the field were likely to be slow away. Mister Ebby had his chance – as did the favourite – but the ratings highlighted that All Black Star was definitely in the mix.  The $90 trifecta paid overs given how short Cawbourne Zulu was.  Keeps us live in the treble too!

Back again next Monday.  Happy punting.