Free Ratings Monday 26 March 2018
** updated at 11 am with bet of the day and lay of the day **
Time marches on … it’s almost the end of March, the end of daylight savings and it’s still a short work week until the long weekend.
But never fear, you can always rely on Formpro Ratings to make your Monday the best day of the week. Thirteen races on the card with the first race (and wonderful sponsors they are too!) with the lids up at 1.42 PM.
We have a little catching up to do after last week with our bet of the day just missing while our lay of the day did exactly what we said he wouldn’t do … he jumped, ran and won!
And don’t forget, if you find the speed maps useful, they are now available on the TAB’s web app.
user = formpro
password = speed
Bet of the Day – Race 8 – Bigtime Steve (2)
Oh, the irony. Last week, we happily made Steve our lay of the day. She hadn’t jumped since Adam was a cross-country jockey. And naturally, as soon as we labelled her slow out of the boxes – with the stats to back it up – she jumped like Red Rum and lead all the way. More importantly, her time was outstanding for the class.
She repeated the dose on Friday night and today gets another run in C1.
It’s not a strong field at all – only one other runner (the second favourite, Bigtime Twinkle in box 5) has won in the last 5 starts.
As we noted last week, Steve didn’t have the best record out of the boxes. However, the last two starts she has jumped but there should be a fair bit of insurance this week – the dog in box 1 has never landed in the first 2 off the lids while the dog in box 3 has managed the feat just once in his first start.
When Steve won last week, her sectionals were the equal or better of almost every C2 and C3 runner and she did it at both ends. She should be able to get on the lure early and then have the strength to power away. I rate her at $2 so the $2.50FF is pretty good value.
Nice to see that there was no hard feelings. More so, it looks like Steve had done her homework prior to the race and it went exactly to script. For once, never in doubt. After she jumped, the $2.50 was looking good value and the only surprise – a nice one for a change – was that she paid $3.10 on the tote.
Lay of the Day – Race 12 – Idol Tom (8)
It’s been a little while since we’ve been able to highlight a classic lay of the day – that is a runner that is favourite but has a lot against it.
Today, I’ve made my lay of the day Idol Tom the lay of the day simply because he maps to get back to last. And if that happens, he will need to be very very very good to win – just 6% of races over 457m are won by the dogs that were 5th or worse at the first marker. So those are some tough odds to over come.
On paper he has a good record from out wide but there really should be an asterisk to this stat – he hasn’t won from boxes 7 or 8 higher than C1. While he has won two of his last four races, they were at Hatrick and his best time over the last 6 starts puts him behind half the field. Likewise, his best time over the 457m at Palmerston North is inferior to three or four runners – to be fair, he is a C3 runner competing against C4 dogs.
The two best chances look like the Cole runners in boxes 1 and 2. Bigtime Forrest (1) has run the times and has the box speed to make the most of the inside alley. Bigtime Ottey (2) doesn’t map to be the first away but has been competing in C4/5 races quite recently. Her closing sectional three races back at Palmerston North was the best for the meeting.
Bigtime Zack (7) and Bigtime Bucko (5) also appeal for exotics.
So more than happy to label Idol Tom as the lay of the day. They’re off at 5.19 pm.
How about that. This time, the whole field seemed to read the script. Tom was definitely last out and as we noted, from there he would need to be extra special to get up. Bigtime Bucko did indeed make the exotics interesting with the trifecta paying $177.