Free Ratings Monday 12 March 2018

Once again, it’s Monday so that must mean free ratings at … Hatrick!

It’s Taranaki’s anniversary celebrations to me hence Taranaki greys at Whanganui.  Everything is the same expect the short races are shorter and the longer races longer.

Don’t forget – all the speed maps are now available on the TAB’s app – just download the app, check out the race and click on the Info label.

David

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Bet of the Day – Race 14 – Benny Burrito (2)

There’s plenty of open races today and not a lot you could put a ring around with confidence.

I like Benny Burrito in race 14 – he’s been winning at Hatrick and running great times and sectionals for a lower class dog.

First the flags – he’s up in class and first start in C1 and he may not be the fastest out of the boxes.  On the other hand, this is the first time in 4 New Zealand starts that he’s drawn closer in than 5 so the improve box draw should help.

He’s two from two at Hatrick and while a third in a C0 race two starts back may not look great on paper, the top three in that race ran outstanding closing sectionals and all three should be winning more races.

The dog in box 1 is not the fastest away which should allow Benny and his jets time to take off.

The obvious dangers are Cawbourne Chezzy in box 3 and Bigtime Spark in the pink on the outside.  Cawbourne Chezzy has struggled to break 50 in her last few start which is still a fair time for C1 but both the other two favourites have the ability to do better. Bigtime Spark has just dropped back to C1 class and struck first start back but has yet to win from 5 starts in the outside two boxes.

Update – was $2.40 but bookies have brought him in to $2FF.

Wow – that dog has got serious gas.  Was midfield at best after 5-10 strides and then just powered to the lead and never looked in danger.  With a run like that, the $1.70 was easy money and the $2.40 was the bookies giving Petone dollars away.

Other value runners:

  • Bear Inda Square (4) looks the possible pacesetter in race 5 and is definitely back in form.  Back up to C5 class but if he can get on the pace they will have to run him down.  Average start and then dropped back.
  • For a bit of value, Accra (8) in race 11 is paying double figures.  He’s got a bit of pace and a decent closing sectional but is a wide runner and often runs into trouble drawn closer to the rail.  The outside alley is perfect for him. The only thing that was good about the race was the wifi reception was so bad I could barely see the race!  Last away and never in it.  The bet of the day is carrying a bit of weight now!

Lay of the Day – Race 7 – Tyson’s Quest (7)

Tyson’s Quest in race 7 is a loose favourite but there would seem to be a couple of better chances in the race.

He’s got a pretty reasonable record from the outside three boxes but to be fair he hasn’t had much racing from the inside alleys.

The first concern is the start.  Up in class he has struggled against faster dogs.

The bigger concern for me is that he hasn’t run the times some of the other dogs have managed.  His best life time rating over the middle distance is just 59 and in his last six starts, the best rating he’s managed has been 45 – the worst in the field.

On the other hand, Caveman Sam (5) has been running top sectionals and has won his last three starts while three other runners – Kirkham Jasper (2), Conquest Girl (4) and Bigtime Rapid (6) have all rated 60 or above as their best in their last 6 starts.  And to add to the mix Mahala Bay (1) and Butterball (out of box 8) have shown box speed in the past.

A good race to watch.

Tyson’s Quest made a reasonable start and put himself in with a shot but the winner – Kirkham Jasper was too strong.  As we noted, Kirkham Jasper was one of the dogs who had superior ratings and so it proved.  Considering how well he has been racing, he paid overs which is often the case when the favourite is unders.

In the previous race, Bigtime Zack (4) is another who is almost certain to get back and could easily run into trouble from the squeeze box.  His closing sectional at Palmerston two back show he can motor home but I would be a little cautious given he’s going to have to run around or through most of the field.  It’s not a strong field but $2.50 is a little short for a dog who maps to get back.  As the speed map showed, Bigtime Zack did get into some trouble and was lucky to find a path through the field.  If Serena had a stronger finish, Zack would have been in trouble but once he got the gaps he was good enough to get up.  Just.

2018-03-12T07:59:48+00:00