Free Ratings Monday 5 March 2018

Isn’t the year marching on?

At least you can always rely on Mondays to bring free ratings with Formpro Ratings.

I’ll be back around 1 pm with my bet of the day and lay of the day.  After the last two weeks, I’m thinking of opening a no cigar shop – we’ve been close but no cigar.  Our bets of the day have run second and our lays of the day have managed to find a way to win.  Hopefully, today we can do better.

David

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Bet of the Day – Race 4 – Bigtime Jay Jay (1)

An interesting change of tactics by trainers here.

Bigtime Jay Jay (1) has been setting up middle distance races for the last month or so before getting run down late.  Mind you, he has been beaten by some good days – Bigtime Lily finished over top twice and yesterday she was up at Auckland running in an invitational race.  So dropping back to 375m seems to a sensible move, especially since he has a win and two places from three starts at Palmerston North over 375m.

So the change from 475m to Palmerston North’s sprint distance looks a significant factor.  Last week, he actually ran the fastest opening sectional of the day for the 475m before yet again getting run down late.  While there is a bit of speed in the race, the speed map suggests he should be able to grab the rails and he’s consistently been on the pace in his recent racing.  From there they will have to run him down.  The shorter distance should help too – even though he did hang on for a 520 win on Friday night.

Mahala Bay in box 2 also has some early speed but she would appear to be better suited to Hatrick.  If she gets an early sit on the outside of Jay Jay it could actually help our selection if Mahala Bay tires in the straight as expected.

Bigtime Bev (5) is another with early speed but again would seem to be better suited to Hatrick plus she’s only recently made it back to C3.

Our great mate Cawbourne Brandy is well placed out in box 7 and could spice up exotics as could Kirkham Coby (3).

Ran pretty much to the script.  Was noticeable that the punt came on late.  Opened at $2.40 and in fact the bookies let him out to $2.50 before coming into $2.00 very late.  In the end, everything went to script and the shorter distance really made a difference.

Lay of the Day – Race 9 – Ocean Gambler (6)

For the lay of the day, we’re going to have a punt and see (sea) how we get on in race 9.  We should apologise in advance for that one.

As we’ve pointed out before, the lay of the day isn’t just about finding a dog that could lose – as we saw with the favourites in the big races yesterday, there’s always doubt in greyhound racing.  The point of the exercise is there to find dogs which aren’t great value which hopefully creates extra value on other runners.

Ocean Gambler (6) is one of 4 main chances but I don’t have him as a $2.40 shot.

The pros – it’s not the strongest field, and he ran a pretty decent opening sectional last week and he was gunned down very late by Bigtime Owen.

On the other hand, since his last win back way back in October, he hasn’t rated once over 33.  Yet in his first 4 NZ starts, his worst two ratings were 43 and 46 and both were winning efforts.  He hasn’t won from box 6 – while he’s won from box 8, he looks to have a better record from the inside boxes.

So if he’s going to be beaten, who’s likely to do so?  Bigtime Joshy in box 1 looks like a possible leader but like Ocean Gambler has a couple of flags.  The other obvious chances are Bigtime Wild (3) and Cawbourne Ridge (4) and then you have to respect Bigtime Ronnie (7) who won at his only start, albeit not in sensational time.

So to summarise, Ocean Gambler looks a reasonable chance in an open field but I wouldn’t be backing him at $2.40.  As we’ve seen so often in the past, the favourite often attracts late money for no reason than they are the favourite which would make him even less value.  A great race to watch.

Back in business – bet of the day gets up with no dramas and our lay of the day gets beaten.  To be fair, Ocean Gambler bombed the start but showed more fight that in recent races so could be one to watch in the future.  Bigtime Joshy read the script and Bigtime Wild made up the trifecta.